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394,660

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World Cup: Furthest Advancing UEFA Nation
kalshi
polymarket
predict

World Cup: Furthest Advancing UEFA Nation

Volume:
$2,419,818

Spain

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 15, 2026

Closed: Jul 15, 5:13 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Spain

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$158,669
N/A
N/A
$89,309
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spain

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$33,922
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Spain

View
99%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$4,935
$1,234
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Czechia

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,147
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

France

View
95%
Yes 95.2¢No 4.8¢
—
N/A
$882
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

France

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$597,727
N/A
N/A
$412,764
Settled
No
polymarket

France

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$73,270
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Norway

View
20%
Yes 20¢No 80¢
—
N/A
$45
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Norway

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$263,900
N/A
N/A
$191,991
Settled
No
polymarket

Norway

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$152,775
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Switzerland

View
10%
Yes 10¢No 90¢
—
N/A
$1,100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Switzerland

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100,736
N/A
N/A
$85,056
Settled
No
polymarket

Switzerland

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,273
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

England

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
0.9¢
$1,406
$1,580
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

England

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$151,480
N/A
N/A
$108,134
Settled
No
polymarket

England

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$46,376
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Belgium

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
N/A
$1,256
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Belgium

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$238,475
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Belgium

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$95,153
N/A
N/A
$63,973
Settled
No
kalshi

Portugal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$112,469
N/A
N/A
$100,636
Settled
No
polymarket

Portugal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,044
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Portugal

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$466
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Sweden

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$101,011
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Sweden

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,251
N/A
N/A
$5,205
Settled
No
predict

Sweden

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$1,000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 67

Intro

This market tracks which European nation will advance furthest in the 2026 FIFA World Cup tournament. Across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict, the consensus probability for Spain being the furthest advancing UEFA nation stands at 100.0%. Resolution will be determined by official FIFA records, with tiebreakers based on total wins, goal differential, and goals conceded through all main tournament rounds. Watch for the tournament conclusion by July 20, 2026, the resolution deadline for determining which European nation achieved the deepest run.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket worst-placed markets contain a data integrity failure (references 'listed player' instead of 'listed nation'), making them fundamentally unresolvable as written. Additionally, the event group itself contains logically opposing market directions (furthest-advancing vs. worst-placed) that cannot both resolve from the same tournament outcome without explicit clarification on whether they are independent binary markets or mutually exclusive outcomes.Hero tip: Furthest-advancing markets (Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict) are tradeable and logically consistent with unified tie-breaker rules. Avoid Polymarket worst-placed markets (questions 21-38) until the template error is corrected by the platform. If you hold positions in worst-placed markets, request clarification from Polymarket support on whether the resolution criteria apply to nation elimination or if this is a template error.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 16 binary markets, each asking if a specific nation will be the furthest-advancing UEFA team. All use identical resolution logic: YES if that nation advances furthest, NO otherwise. No tie-breaker rules specified; assumes only one nation can be furthest. No cancellation clause provided.
  • Polymarket: 13 furthest-advancing markets (France, Spain, Belgium, Czechia, Portugal, England, Netherlands, Austria, Germany, Türkiye, Norway, Switzerland, Sweden, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Scotland, plus 'another UEFA nation') with unified tie-breaker logic (wins, goals for, goals against, alphabetical). PLUS 8 worst-placed markets (Spain, Portugal, Türkiye, Czechia, Netherlands, Bosnia and Herzegovina, France, Belgium, Germany, England, Norway, Austria, Croatia, Scotland, Sweden, Switzerland, plus 'another nation') using inverse tie-breakers. CRITICAL FLAW: Worst-placed market description contains copy-paste error stating 'it cannot be determined if the listed player scored a goal' instead of nation elimination status, rendering worst-placed markets unresolvable as written.
  • Predict: 17 binary markets on furthest-advancing nations only (Spain, Czechia, Croatia, Germany, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Scotland, England, France, Norway, Portugal, Switzerland, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, Sweden, Türkiye). Uses identical tie-breaker logic to Polymarket furthest-advancing (wins, goals for, goals against, alphabetical). Contains a template error in the description referencing 'listed player' instead of 'listed nation,' but this error does not appear in the resolution criteria itself, only in the cancellation clause.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve in favor of the nation in UEFA that advances to the latest stage in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If there is a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the nation who recorded more total wins through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation who scores more total goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation who conceded fewer goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or it cannot be determined which nation advanced the furthest during the 2026 FIFA World Cup within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve in favor of the nation in UEFA (Europe) that is eliminated at the earliest stage (places lowest) in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If there is a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that recorded fewer total wins through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that scored fewer total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that conceded more total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the worst-placed UEFA nation cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the furthest stage reached by any UEFA-affiliated nation competing in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. Stages are ranked from Group Stage through winning the Final, with later stages considered further advancement. Continental classification follows FIFA World Cup qualification pathways rather than geographic borders. If a team withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified during the tournament, their furthest stage is based on the last stage they successfully completed. Reaching the Semifinals is considered the furthest stage for teams that lose in the Semifinals, regardless of third-place match results. When multiple European nations advance to the same furthest stage, the Yes payout is divided equally among tied nations, rounded down to the nearest cent, with the No payout calculated as the remainder.

Predict

This market will resolve in favor of the nation in UEFA that advances to the latest stage in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If there is a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the nation who recorded more total wins through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation who scores more total goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation who conceded fewer goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or it cannot be determined if the listed player scored a goal during the 2026 FIFA World Cup within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Kalshi for the 2026 FIFA World Cup prediction market focused on which European nation will advance furthest in the tournament. It displays live chance percentages, historical price movements, and cross-platform volume to show consensus expectations among prediction market participants. By tracking both platforms simultaneously, you gain insight into how different trader communities assess the likelihood of each European competitor's tournament performance and can identify divergences in pricing that may signal arbitrage or shifting sentiment.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket and Kalshi often reflect real-time trader sentiment and can diverge meaningfully from traditional sportsbook lines. Prediction markets typically aggregate dispersed information from thousands of independent traders with direct financial incentive to forecast accurately, whereas sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin. For the 2026 World Cup furthest advancing European nation market, prediction market prices may move faster in response to team news, injuries, or qualifying results, while sportsbooks adjust more conservatively to manage risk exposure.

Key catalysts include World Cup qualifying results and playoff outcomes that confirm or eliminate European nations from the 2026 tournament. Injury announcements to star players, managerial changes, and friendly match performances will shift trader confidence in each nation's strength. Draws and seeding announcements closer to the tournament will reshape expectations around group difficulty and knockout matchups. Political or logistical developments affecting the host nation, and real-time tournament momentum once matches begin, will drive sharp repricing. Transfer market moves and domestic league performance of key players also influence perceived competitive depth.