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World Cup: Worst-Placed Host Nation
polymarket
predict

World Cup: Worst-Placed Host Nation

Volume:
$9,895

Canada

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 4, 2026

Closed: Aug 2, 11:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Canada

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,486
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Canada

View
N/A
N/A
—
$42
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Mexico

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,210
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Mexico

View
N/A
N/A
—
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

USA

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,197
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

USA

View
N/A
N/A
—
$1
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event group determines which of the three 2026 FIFA World Cup host nations (Canada, Mexico, United States) finishes in the worst position in the tournament. Resolution is based on earliest elimination stage, with tie-breaking rules applied sequentially: fewest wins, fewest goals scored, most goals conceded, and alphabetical order as final arbiter.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms apply identical resolution criteria, tie-breaking hierarchy, cancellation protocols, and deadline cutoffs with no material divergence.Primary resolution logic: Official FIFA information; consensus of credible reporting may also be used

Core resolution logic:

  • Worst-placed host nation is the one eliminated at the earliest stage (lowest final placement) among Canada, Mexico, and United States
  • If two or more host nations are eliminated at the same stage, apply tie-breaker 1: nation with fewer total wins through all main tournament rounds
  • If tie persists after tie-breaker 1, apply tie-breaker 2: nation with fewer total goals scored through all main tournament rounds
  • If tie persists after tie-breaker 2, apply tie-breaker 3: nation that conceded more total goals through all main tournament rounds
  • If tie persists after tie-breaker 3, apply tie-breaker 4: nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically (Canada, Mexico, United States)
  • Possible outcomes: Canada, Mexico, United States, or Other

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tournament Cancellation: If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled or postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'
  • Indeterminate Outcome: If the worst-placed host nation cannot be determined within the deadline timeframe, the market resolves to 'Other'
  • Alphabetical Tie-Breaker: Final tie-breaker applies alphabetical ordering: Canada precedes Mexico, which precedes United States
  • Main Tournament Rounds Only: All statistics (wins, goals scored, goals conceded) are calculated only through main tournament rounds, excluding any preliminary or qualification phases
Timing: Resolution occurs by August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, following completion of the 2026 FIFA World Cup main tournament roundsOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve in favor of the host nation (Canada, Mexico, United States) that is eliminated at the earliest stage (places lowest) in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If there is a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that recorded fewer total wins through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that scored fewer total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that conceded more total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the worst-placed Host nation cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Predict

This market will resolve in favor of the host nation (Canada, Mexico, United States) that is eliminated at the earliest stage (places lowest) in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If there is a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that recorded fewer total wins through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that scored fewer total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that conceded more total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the worst-placed Host nation cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Predict for the question of which host nation will finish lowest in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. It displays the leading outcome, current implied probability, and cross-platform volume to give you a consensus view of market sentiment. By tracking both platforms side by side, you can see how different prediction markets are pricing the same event and identify where traders see the most conviction around Canada or other co-host nations' tournament performance.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Predict operate independently from traditional sportsbooks and often reflect different trader bases, liquidity, and risk appetites. While sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin, prediction markets aggregate decentralized belief. For the 2026 World Cup host-nation finish, prediction market prices may diverge from sportsbook lines due to different information flows, bet sizing constraints, and the types of participants active on each venue. Direct comparison requires checking both simultaneously.

Key catalysts include qualifying-round performance by Canada, Mexico, and the United States; roster announcements and injury updates; coaching changes; and pre-tournament friendlies that signal team strength. As the tournament approaches, squad depth, draw positioning, and group-stage matchups will heavily influence market prices. Live tournament results—early wins or losses—will create sharp repricing. Media narratives around host-nation expectations and betting syndicates' positioning may also drive significant odds movement closer to kickoff.