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World Cup: Worst-Placed CONMEBOL Nation
polymarket
predict

World Cup: Worst-Placed CONMEBOL Nation

Volume:
$19,891

Uruguay

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 27, 2026

Closed: Aug 2, 11:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Uruguay

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,952
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Uruguay

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Paraguay

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,058
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Paraguay

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ecuador

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,263
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Ecuador

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Colombia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,826
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Colombia

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Brazil

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$992
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Brazil

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Argentina

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$798
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Argentina

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Description

This event group determines which CONMEBOL (South American) nation finishes in the worst position at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The winner is the nation eliminated at the earliest stage, with detailed tiebreakers based on wins, goals scored, goals conceded, and alphabetical order. Multiple binary markets across platforms ask whether specific nations (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Colombia, Ecuador) or another nation will be worst-placed.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict platforms present identical resolution criteria, tiebreaker hierarchy, cancellation provisions, and source hierarchy with no material divergence.Primary resolution logic: Official FIFA information; consensus of credible reporting as secondary source

Core resolution logic:

  • Worst-placed CONMEBOL nation is the one eliminated at the earliest stage (lowest final placement) in the 2026 FIFA World Cup
  • If two or more nations are eliminated at the same stage, apply tiebreaker 1: nation with fewest total wins through all main tournament rounds
  • If tiebreaker 1 does not resolve, apply tiebreaker 2: nation with fewest total goals scored through all main tournament rounds
  • If tiebreaker 2 does not resolve, apply tiebreaker 3: nation that conceded more total goals through all main tournament rounds
  • If tiebreaker 3 does not resolve, apply tiebreaker 4: nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically
  • Binary markets resolve YES for the nation determined to be worst-placed; all other nation-specific markets resolve NO
  • If another nation (not Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Colombia, or Ecuador) is worst-placed, the 'other nation' market resolves YES and all named-nation markets resolve NO

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tournament Cancellation or Postponement: If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled or postponed after August 2, 2026 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to 'Other'
  • Determination Deadline: If the worst-placed CONMEBOL nation cannot be determined by August 2, 2026 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to 'Other'
  • Eligible CONMEBOL Nations: Only nations from CONMEBOL confederation are eligible; the six explicitly named nations (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Colombia, Ecuador) plus any other CONMEBOL member that qualifies for 2026 World Cup
  • Tiebreaker Application: Tiebreakers apply strictly in order; if a tiebreaker resolves the tie, subsequent tiebreakers are not applied
  • Main Tournament Rounds Only: All statistics (wins, goals scored, goals conceded) count only through main tournament rounds; qualification rounds do not count
Timing: Resolution occurs after the 2026 FIFA World Cup concludes and final standings are confirmed by FIFA, no later than August 2, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If determination cannot occur by this deadline, markets resolve to 'Other'.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve in favor of the nation in CONMEBOL (South America) that is eliminated at the earliest stage (places lowest) in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If there is a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that recorded fewer total wins through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that scored fewer total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that conceded more total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the worst-placed CONMEBOL nation cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Predict

This market will resolve in favor of the nation in CONMEBOL (South America) that is eliminated at the earliest stage (places lowest) in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If there is a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that recorded fewer total wins through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that scored fewer total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that conceded more total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the worst-placed CONMEBOL nation cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Predict often diverge from traditional sportsbooks because they aggregate decentralized trader opinion rather than relying on oddsmakers' models. Sportsbooks optimize for balanced liability and profit margins, while prediction markets reflect real-time belief updates from thousands of participants. For this CONMEBOL worst-placed event, market odds may price tail-risk outcomes (like smaller nations underperforming) differently than sportsbooks, especially as qualifying tournaments conclude and squad compositions solidify closer to the 2026 tournament.

Key catalysts include CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying results, which reveal which nations secure spots and in what form. Injury announcements to star players, coaching changes, and friendly match performances signal team strength. Squad announcements and pre-tournament preparation camps provide direct evidence of readiness. Political or economic instability affecting any CONMEBOL nation could influence performance. Odds will also shift as other markets price tournament favorites, since weaker group assignments or early knockout matchups can dramatically alter a nation's final placement. Real-time tournament results will drive the sharpest repricing.