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World Cup: USA Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: USA Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$3,169,332

Round of 16

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 7, 2026

Closed: Jul 6, 10:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Round of 16

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$501,063
N/A
N/A
$246,058
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Round of 16

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$117,217
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$713,683
N/A
N/A
$535,371
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32,050
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$482,013
N/A
N/A
$213,608
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$111,068
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$419,188
N/A
N/A
$280,702
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$71,977
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$294,313
N/A
N/A
$237,235
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$44,966
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$212,811
N/A
N/A
$175,985
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,381
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$134,036
N/A
N/A
$87,275
Settled
No
polymarket

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,566
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Intro

This market tracks whether the USA national team will be eliminated in the Round of 16 stage of the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup. Aggregated across Kalshi and Polymarket, the consensus probability stands at 97.0% for USA elimination at this stage. Resolution is determined by official FIFA records of the tournament outcome. Watch for the Round of 16 matches scheduled around July 20, 2026, which will definitively settle whether the USA advances past this elimination stage or exits the competition.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's binary YES/NO structure conflates elimination with championship victory, creating a logical impossibility. Polymarket uses a multi-outcome framework that correctly separates championship, elimination stages, and other outcomes. The two platforms cannot both resolve consistently to the same real-world event.Hero tip: This is a critical design flaw on Kalshi. A binary market cannot resolve YES for both "USA is eliminated" and "USA wins the tournament"—these are mutually exclusive outcomes. Polymarket's approach is logically sound. Before trading Kalshi, demand platform clarification on whether the championship clause is intentional or a drafting error. If intentional, Kalshi is asking "Will USA fail to win the tournament?" which is a different question than Polymarket's elimination-stage tracking.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary YES/NO market that resolves YES for elimination at any stage (Group, R32, R16, QF, SF, Final) AND ALSO resolves YES if USA wins the Final. This creates logical contradiction: winning the Final is not an elimination. Quote: 'If USA wins the Final in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Multi-outcome market with distinct resolution categories: elimination at specific stages (Group, R32, R16, QF, SF, Final), championship victory ("Champion"), and catch-all ("other position"). Championship and elimination are mutually exclusive outcomes. Quote: 'If USA wins the tournament, this market will resolve to Champion.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which USA is eliminated. If USA wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If USA is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by USA based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The USA's stage of elimination during the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup is determined by the round in which the team loses or is eliminated. If a team withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified at any point, the stage of elimination is determined by the farthest stage reached prior to such action. For example, if a team withdraws after winning their Round of 32 match, the Round of 16 outcome resolves Yes since that would be the next stage where elimination would have occurred. If a team loses in the Semifinals, the Semifinals outcome resolves Yes regardless of whether they win the third-place match. The Outright Winner outcome resolves Yes only if the USA wins the Final.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Kalshi for the same underlying question: which stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup will the USA be eliminated. By tracking both platforms simultaneously, you gain a consensus view of market probability across venues, see which stage traders favor most, and monitor total liquidity and 24-hour volume. Cross-platform comparison reveals where smart money is concentrating and helps identify arbitrage opportunities or consensus shifts in real time.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi differ from traditional sportsbooks in structure and incentive. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin; prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous order books. For USA World Cup elimination, prediction market odds reflect decentralized consensus and often move faster on breaking news or roster changes. Sportsbook odds may lag or incorporate different risk models. Comparing both reveals whether consensus leans bullish or bearish on USA advancement and highlights value discrepancies.

Key catalysts include USA roster announcements, injuries to star players, qualifying performance and seeding, group stage draw results, and head-to-head matchups against rival nations. Coaching changes, tactical shifts, and recent international friendlies signal team form. Real-time tournament events—early wins or losses, goal differential, and momentum—drive sharp repricing. Media narratives around USA depth and experience also influence trader sentiment. Each group stage result and knockout match will trigger volatility in stage-of-elimination odds.