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World Cup: Uruguay Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: Uruguay Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$53,146

Group Stage

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 27, 2026

Closed: Jul 19, 3:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Group Stage

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,625
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Group Stage

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,936
N/A
N/A
$4,949
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,425
N/A
N/A
$10,626
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,294
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,428
N/A
N/A
$6,428
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$711
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,419
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,332
N/A
N/A
$2,260
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,986
N/A
N/A
$3,598
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,357
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,930
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,569
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$86
N/A
N/A
$86
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks at which stage of the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup Uruguay will be eliminated, or whether they will win the tournament. Both Kalshi and Polymarket offer markets on Uruguay's tournament outcome, with resolution tied to the official stage of elimination or championship victory.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Kalshi and Polymarket use identical resolution logic: Uruguay resolves to Yes/Champion if they reach any stage (Group through Final) or win the tournament, with official FIFA data as the primary source and credible reporting as backup.Primary resolution logic: Official FIFA sources (fifa.com); credible reporting consensus as secondary authority

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves Yes if Uruguay is eliminated in Group Stage
  • Market resolves Yes if Uruguay is eliminated in Round of 32
  • Market resolves Yes if Uruguay is eliminated in Round of 16
  • Market resolves Yes if Uruguay is eliminated in Quarterfinals
  • Market resolves Yes if Uruguay is eliminated in Semifinals
  • Market resolves Yes if Uruguay is eliminated in Final
  • Market resolves Yes/Champion if Uruguay wins the tournament

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tournament Cancellation or Postponement: If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full or postponed after August 2, 2026 11:59 PM ET, market resolves to Other
  • Disqualification or Withdrawal: If Uruguay is disqualified, withdraws, or is removed from the tournament, resolution is based on the furthest completed round reached by Uruguay using best available official information
  • Incomplete Tournament: If the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, resolution defaults to the furthest completed round reached by Uruguay
Timing: Resolution occurs upon completion of the match or round in which Uruguay is eliminated, or upon tournament conclusion if Uruguay wins. Final resolution deadline is tied to official FIFA tournament completion or August 2, 2026 11:59 PM ET threshold for postponement classification.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Uruguay is eliminated. If Uruguay wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Uruguay is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Uruguay based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Uruguay's stage of elimination during the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup is determined by the round in which the team loses or is eliminated. If a team withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified at any point, the stage of elimination is determined by the farthest stage reached prior to such action. For example, if a team withdraws after winning their Round of 32 match, the Round of 16 outcome resolves Yes since that would be the next stage where elimination would have occurred. If a team loses in the Semifinals, the Semifinals outcome resolves Yes regardless of whether they win the third-place match. The Outright Winner outcome resolves Yes only if Uruguay wins the Final.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market odds for Uruguay's progression through the knockout stages of the 2026 FIFA World Cup across Polymarket and Kalshi. It tracks real-time consensus pricing on outcomes including whether Uruguay advances past the Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and ultimately wins the tournament. By monitoring both platforms simultaneously, the dashboard reveals how traders across decentralized and regulated venues price Uruguay's elimination risk at each stage. Total group trading activity reflects the combined liquidity and trader conviction across venues, providing a comprehensive view of market sentiment on Uruguay's World Cup trajectory.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket and Kalshi often diverge from traditional sportsbook lines because they reflect real-time trader positioning rather than bookmaker risk management. Sportsbooks adjust odds to balance liability; prediction markets price based on collective belief. For Uruguay's elimination stage, market odds may embed sharper assessments of squad depth, injury updates, and draw positioning than sportsbooks initially reflect. Prediction markets typically update faster to breaking news, while sportsbooks may lag or apply wider margins. Comparing both sources helps bettors identify mispricing opportunities and validate consensus strength around Uruguay's World Cup prospects.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Kalshi serve different trader bases, regulatory environments, and liquidity pools, creating natural price variance. Polymarket focuses on regulated U.S. markets with strict outcome definitions, while Kalshi operates globally with broader participation. For Uruguay's elimination stage, one platform may attract more South American traders with local insight, shifting odds. Liquidity depth varies by platform; thin order books amplify bid-ask spreads. Market-making strategies, fee structures, and timing of major news also drive wedges. These differences typically narrow as resolution approaches, but monitoring both venues reveals where informed traders concentrate conviction on Uruguay's knockout-stage fate.

Key catalysts include Uruguay squad announcements, injuries to star players, qualifying-round results that affect seeding and draw positioning, and pre-tournament friendlies revealing form. During the tournament, match outcomes directly shift elimination odds; a loss in the group stage dramatically increases knockout-stage exit probability. Coaching changes, tactical shifts, and performance against specific opponents also move markets. Media narratives around Uruguay's chances, comparative strength of rival nations, and bracket dynamics post-draw will influence trader positioning. Real-time updates from official FIFA communications and team statements flow into both Polymarket and Kalshi, creating continuous repricing as the tournament unfolds.