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World Cup: Türkiye Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: Türkiye Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$68,803

Group Stage

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 24, 12:14 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Group Stage

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,770
N/A
N/A
$7,856
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Group Stage

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,947
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,857
N/A
N/A
$15,512
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,553
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,082
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,883
N/A
N/A
$2,891
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,697
N/A
N/A
$3,510
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,771
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,934
N/A
N/A
$2,934
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,693
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,668
N/A
N/A
$2,546
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,924
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,403
N/A
N/A
$2,403
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,621
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks Türkiye's progression and elimination stage in the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup. Markets resolve based on the furthest round Türkiye reaches, with special resolution for tournament victory or disqualification scenarios.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms employ identical resolution logic: Türkiye's elimination at any stage (Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final) or tournament victory all resolve to YES, with official FIFA sources as the authoritative reference.Primary resolution logic: Official FIFA (fifa.com) records; credible consensus reporting may supplement if official sources are temporarily unavailable

Core resolution logic:

  • If Türkiye is eliminated in Group Stage, market resolves YES
  • If Türkiye is eliminated in Round of 32, market resolves YES
  • If Türkiye is eliminated in Round of 16, market resolves YES
  • If Türkiye is eliminated in Quarterfinals, market resolves YES
  • If Türkiye is eliminated in Semifinals, market resolves YES
  • If Türkiye is eliminated in Final, market resolves YES
  • If Türkiye wins the Final (becomes Champion), market resolves YES
  • Resolution is based on the furthest completed round reached by Türkiye

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tournament Cancellation or Postponement: If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full or postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, market resolves to OTHER. If partially completed, resolution follows the furthest completed round reached by Türkiye based on best available official information.
  • Disqualification or Withdrawal: If Türkiye is disqualified, withdraws, or is removed from the tournament, market resolves according to the furthest completed round reached by Türkiye at the time of disqualification/withdrawal.
  • Source Hierarchy: Official FIFA information is primary; credible consensus reporting from major sports outlets serves as secondary source if official FIFA channels are unavailable or delayed.
Timing: Resolution occurs upon completion of the match or round in which Türkiye is eliminated, or immediately upon tournament victory. Final resolution deadline is no later than the official conclusion of the 2026 FIFA World Cup tournament.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Türkiye is eliminated. If Türkiye wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Türkiye is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Türkiye based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

These markets collectively track Turkiye's progression through the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup tournament structure. A team's stage of elimination is determined by the farthest stage reached prior to any loss, withdrawal, forfeit, or disqualification. If a team loses in the Semifinals, the Semifinals market resolves to Yes regardless of third-place match results. If a team withdraws or is disqualified after advancing past a stage, the next stage they would have faced is considered their elimination point. For example, withdrawal after winning a Round of 32 match means the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes. The Outright Winner market resolves to Yes only if Turkiye wins the Final, while the Runner-Up market resolves to Yes if Turkiye loses in the Final.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi often reflect sharper, crowd-sourced pricing than traditional sportsbooks because traders risk real capital and face continuous repricing. Sportsbooks apply fixed margins and may lag behind breaking news or injury updates. For Türkiye's elimination stage, prediction markets typically adjust faster to team roster changes, qualifying performance, and draw implications. However, sportsbook odds remain useful benchmarks for comparing implied probabilities. The prediction market consensus here aggregates thousands of individual forecasts, potentially offering less biased estimates than a single bookmaker's line, though both should be monitored for alignment.

Key catalysts include Türkiye's qualifying performance, final group-stage draw announcement, and roster announcements closer to the tournament. Injuries to star players, managerial changes, and friendly match results in 2025–2026 will influence trader sentiment. Strength-of-schedule analysis—particularly which European or South American teams Türkiye faces—drives repricing. Betting syndicates and sharp money often move odds ahead of official news, so volume spikes and price momentum can signal informed positioning. Tournament-adjacent events like continental championships and playoff matches involving other nations also shift relative expectations for Türkiye's advancement odds.