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OPEN INTEREST:

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406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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World Cup: Team to Go Unbeaten (Group Stage)
polymarket
kalshi

World Cup: Team to Go Unbeaten (Group Stage)

Volume:
$982,150

France

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 28, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 11:37 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

France

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$113,321
N/A
N/A
$86,756
Settled
Yes
polymarket

France

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,959
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Argentina

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$77,691
N/A
N/A
$59,063
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Argentina

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,658
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Mexico

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$71,533
N/A
N/A
$53,705
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Mexico

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,860
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Netherlands

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$35,381
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Netherlands

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,315
N/A
N/A
$9,882
Settled
No
polymarket

Morocco

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$16,773
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Morocco

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,808
N/A
N/A
$1,798
Settled
No
polymarket

England

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,255
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

England

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$44,358
N/A
N/A
$41,155
Settled
No
polymarket

Egypt

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,210
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

South Africa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,500
N/A
N/A
$1,500
Settled
No
polymarket

Japan

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,018
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Japan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,654
N/A
N/A
$10,594
Settled
No
polymarket

Portugal

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,025
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Portugal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,066
N/A
N/A
$7,966
Settled
No
polymarket

Spain

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,800
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Spain

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,176
N/A
N/A
$4,988
Settled
No
polymarket

Colombia

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,178
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Colombia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$47,781
N/A
N/A
$41,119
Settled
No
polymarket

Iran

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,667
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

IR Iran

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
No
polymarket

Belgium

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,148
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 94

Intro

This market tracks whether France will win all three of their group stage matches at the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup without any draws or losses. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the aggregated consensus stands at 99.0% for France completing a perfect group stage record. The resolution source requires France to win exactly three matches during the group stage phase. Watch the group stage matches concluding on June 29, 2026, when all group outcomes will be finalized and the market can settle.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi defines success as winning all 3 group stage matches (3-0-0 record), while Polymarket defines success as not recording any loss (permits draws). A team with 2 wins and 1 draw would resolve YES on Polymarket but NO on Kalshi.Hero tip: Understand your platform: Kalshi bets on perfect records (3 wins); Polymarket bets on unbeaten records (0 losses, draws allowed). Adjust win probability estimates downward for Kalshi markets relative to Polymarket. Monitor group stage results carefully—a draw eliminates Kalshi YES outcomes but preserves Polymarket YES outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Requires exactly 3 wins in group stage. No draws or losses permitted. Resolution is binary: 3 wins = YES, anything else = NO. Key Quote: 'If [Team] wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Requires no losses in group stage; draws are permitted and count as unbeaten. A team with 2 wins and 1 draw (2-1-0) resolves YES. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if the listed team does not record a loss in any of its three 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage matches. For the purpose of this market, unbeaten is defined as having not recorded a loss; a drawn match counts as unbeaten.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team does not record a loss in any of its three 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage matches. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, “unbeaten” is defined as having not recorded a loss; a drawn match counts as unbeaten. A listed team that is eliminated, disqualified, or withdraws before completing all three group matches will resolve “No”. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to finish the group stage unbeaten (e.g. they record a loss), the associated market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after July 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or official group stage results are not available within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

If Mexico wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If South Africa wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Korea Republic wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Czechia wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Canada wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bosnia and Herzegovina wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Qatar wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Switzerland wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Brazil wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Morocco wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Haiti wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Scotland wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If USA wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Paraguay wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Australia wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Turkiye wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Germany wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Curacao wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ivory Coast wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ecuador wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Netherlands wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Japan wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sweden wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tunisia wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Belgium wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If IR Iran wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If New Zealand wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Spain wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Cape Verde wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Saudi Arabia wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Uruguay wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If France wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Senegal wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Iraq wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Norway wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Argentina wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Algeria wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Austria wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jordan wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Portugal wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Congo DR wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Uzbekistan wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Colombia wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If England wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Croatia wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ghana wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Panama wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Egypt wins 3 matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed odds set by a bookmaker. Traders buy and sell shares reflecting their belief in an outcome, with prices converging toward true probability over time. Sportsbooks, by contrast, set fixed lines designed to balance action and lock in profit margins. Prediction market odds often reflect sharper, less biased estimates because traders have direct financial skin in the game and no house edge to protect. However, sportsbooks may offer tighter liquidity and faster settlement on major events, while prediction markets reward patient traders who spot mispricings early.

Key injury announcements, roster changes, and qualifying-round upsets will shift odds for teams expected to go unbeaten. Friendly match results and head-to-head form leading into the tournament provide early momentum signals. Group composition draws and fixture scheduling can alter perceived difficulty—a team facing weaker opponents may see its odds improve. Managerial changes, tactical shifts, and player transfers during the pre-tournament window also influence trader conviction. As the tournament begins, early match results will rapidly reprice all remaining outcomes, with a single upset loss eliminating a team from unbeaten contention instantly.