TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
World Cup: Sweden Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: Sweden Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$163,247

Round of 32

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 19, 3:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Round of 32

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$32,614
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Round of 32

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$13,910
N/A
N/A
$11,655
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50,271
N/A
N/A
$33,991
Settled
No
polymarket

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,834
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,998
N/A
N/A
$5,455
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,503
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,039
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,668
N/A
N/A
$3,463
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,535
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$332
N/A
N/A
$332
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,572
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$109
N/A
N/A
$109
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,688
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$175
N/A
N/A
$175
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks the stage at which Sweden is eliminated from the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup. Both platforms offer markets covering all possible elimination stages (Group Stage through Final) plus a Sweden championship outcome, with resolution tied to official FIFA tournament results.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market contains a logical contradiction: it resolves YES for both Sweden's elimination at any stage AND for Sweden winning the tournament, which are mutually exclusive outcomes. Polymarket correctly structures these as separate, mutually exclusive binary markets.Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi's market without explicit clarification from the platform. The resolution logic as written is unresolvable. Polymarket's ten separate markets are logically sound and should be your primary reference.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Single market with seven YES conditions covering all elimination stages plus championship. Logical flaw: conditions 1-6 (elimination at any stage) and condition 7 (championship win) are mutually exclusive but all resolve to YES. This makes the market fundamentally unresolvable because Sweden cannot satisfy multiple conditions simultaneously.
  • Polymarket: Ten separate binary markets, each addressing a single outcome: elimination at Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final, or championship win, plus 'other' outcomes. Each market resolves YES for exactly one scenario, ensuring mutual exclusivity and logical consistency.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Sweden is eliminated. If Sweden wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Sweden is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Sweden based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

These markets collectively track Sweden's progression through the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup tournament structure. A team's stage of elimination is determined by the farthest stage reached prior to any loss, withdrawal, forfeit, or disqualification. If a team loses in the Semifinals, the Semifinals market resolves to Yes regardless of third-place match results. If a team withdraws or is disqualified after advancing past a stage, the next stage they would have faced is considered their elimination point. For example, withdrawal after winning a Round of 32 match means the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes. The Outright Winner market resolves to Yes only if Sweden wins the Final, while the Runner-Up market resolves to Yes if Sweden loses in the Final.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Kalshi for Sweden's elimination stage in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. It displays live chance percentages, cumulative trading volume across platforms, and 24-hour volume metrics to show market consensus on whether Sweden advances past the group stage or exits earlier. By tracking multiple prediction markets simultaneously, the dashboard reveals how professional traders and retail participants are pricing Sweden's tournament longevity, offering a cross-platform view of collective expectations.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate independently from traditional sportsbooks, often reflecting different liquidity pools and participant bases. Prediction market odds are derived from real-time trading and reflect what participants are willing to stake, whereas sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin. For Sweden's World Cup elimination stage, prediction market prices may diverge from sportsbook lines due to differences in market depth, regulatory constraints, and the types of bettors active on each platform. Comparing both sources provides a fuller picture of market sentiment.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Kalshi track different elimination scenarios—Polymarket focuses on group stage exit while Kalshi emphasizes semifinal elimination—creating distinct market structures and participant incentives. Differences in liquidity, user geography, fee structures, and trading mechanics also drive price divergence. Polymarket may attract traders focused on early-stage outcomes, while Kalshi's user base might emphasize deeper tournament runs. Arbitrage opportunities and varying levels of market maturity between platforms further explain why identical or overlapping outcomes can trade at different implied probabilities.

Key catalysts include Sweden's qualifying performance and final group assignment, injuries to star players, coaching changes, and pre-tournament friendlies that signal team form. During the tournament, match results, goal-scoring trends, and head-to-head tiebreaker scenarios will drive real-time repricing. Unexpected upsets, red cards, or standout individual performances can shift elimination probabilities significantly. Media narratives, betting syndicates' positioning, and late-breaking team news also influence market prices. Traders monitor all these signals to adjust positions as Sweden progresses through or exits the tournament.