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$1,439,516,703

404,175

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2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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Kalshi:

61%

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World Cup: South Africa Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: South Africa Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$82,130

Round of 32

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 28, 2026

Closed: Jul 19, 3:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Round of 32

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$18,171
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Round of 32

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$13,052
N/A
N/A
$9,490
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,333
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,143
N/A
N/A
$7,101
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,497
N/A
N/A
$3,081
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,942
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,054
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,205
N/A
N/A
$2,165
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,854
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$53
N/A
N/A
$53
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,992
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$993
N/A
N/A
$943
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,790
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks South Africa's progression through the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup, specifically which stage of elimination they reach or whether they win the tournament. Markets across platforms are attempting to capture the same underlying outcome: South Africa's final stage of participation.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's binary YES/NO logic contains a logical contradiction: Rule 3 (South Africa wins the Final = YES) directly contradicts Rule 6 (South Africa is eliminated in the Final = YES). A single tournament outcome cannot satisfy both conditions. Polymarket's categorical model avoids this by assigning exactly one resolution category per outcome.Hero tip: This is a critical structural flaw in Kalshi's market design. Before trading, demand written clarification from Kalshi on whether Rule 3 (winning) should resolve YES or NO, and whether Rule 6 (losing in Final) should resolve YES or NO. Polymarket's categorical resolution is logically sound and should be treated as the reference framework. Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket will settle identically.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary YES/NO framework with seven rules, all resolving to YES. Includes both 'South Africa wins the Final' (Rule 3) and 'South Africa is eliminated in the Final' (Rule 6) as YES outcomes. This creates a logical impossibility: a single tournament result cannot be both a win and an elimination. The framework fails to partition the outcome space into mutually exclusive categories.
  • Polymarket: Categorical resolution framework with mutually exclusive outcomes: Champion (if South Africa wins), or exactly one elimination stage (Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final). Each tournament outcome maps to exactly one resolution category. Includes fallback rules for disqualification, withdrawal, or tournament cancellation after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which resolve to 'Other'.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which South Africa is eliminated. If South Africa wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If South Africa is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by South Africa based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

These markets collectively track South Africa's progression through the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup tournament structure. A team's stage of elimination is determined by the farthest stage reached prior to any loss, withdrawal, forfeit, or disqualification. If a team loses in the Semifinals, the Semifinals market resolves to Yes regardless of third-place match results. If a team withdraws or is disqualified after advancing past a stage, the next stage they would have faced is considered their elimination point. For example, withdrawal after winning a Round of 32 match means the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes. The Outright Winner market resolves to Yes only if South Africa wins the Final, while the Runner-Up market resolves to Yes if South Africa loses in the Final.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Kalshi for the same underlying question: at which stage South Africa will be eliminated from the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. You can monitor live chance percentages, historical price movements, and cumulative trading volume across both platforms simultaneously. This cross-platform view reveals consensus conviction about South Africa's tournament longevity while highlighting where professional traders and retail participants diverge in their expectations.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate independently of traditional sportsbooks and often reflect different participant bases, liquidity constraints, and risk appetites. Sportsbooks price to balance liability and extract margin; prediction markets price to match supply and demand among traders. For World Cup elimination stage bets, prediction market odds may diverge from sportsbook lines by several percentage points, especially as tournament dates approach and new information emerges. Direct comparison requires checking both simultaneously.

Key catalysts include South Africa's qualifying performance, squad announcements, injury updates to star players, and pre-tournament friendlies that signal tactical readiness. Group-stage draw composition directly affects elimination odds; a difficult group raises group-stage elimination probability. Tournament momentum—early wins or losses—will drive sharp repricing. Betting syndicates and professional traders often move markets ahead of public sentiment. Media narratives around South Africa's form and coach changes can also trigger significant price swings on both Polymarket and Kalshi.