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World Cup: Senegal Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: Senegal Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$200,854

Round of 32

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 8:09 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Round of 32

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$41,851
N/A
N/A
$26,938
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Round of 32

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$38,372
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$22,323
N/A
N/A
$14,720
Settled
No
polymarket

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,109
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,153
N/A
N/A
$20,151
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,295
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,488
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,969
N/A
N/A
$3,490
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,302
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,949
N/A
N/A
$4,338
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,167
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,737
N/A
N/A
$2,544
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,950
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,189
N/A
N/A
$4,189
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks the stage at which Senegal is eliminated from the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup, or whether they win the tournament. Both Kalshi and Polymarket offer markets on Senegal's elimination stage, with resolution tied to official FIFA tournament outcomes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Market structure divergence: Kalshi uses binary Yes resolution for all tournament outcomes (elimination at any stage or championship), while Polymarket uses categorical resolution with distinct buckets for each stage plus a championship outcome.Hero tip: These are fundamentally different market types. Kalshi's market is a 'Did Senegal participate and get a result?' binary, while Polymarket's is a 'Which stage did Senegal reach?' categorical. If you want stage-specific exposure, use Polymarket. If you want a simple 'Senegal tournament outcome exists' bet, Kalshi works but is less informative.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary Yes/No structure where Yes resolves for elimination at any stage (Group, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final) OR championship win. All seven conditions collapse to Yes. Quote: 'If Senegal wins the Final in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Categorical resolution with mutually exclusive outcomes: Champion (if Senegal wins), Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final (if eliminated at that stage), or Other (if tournament cancelled/postponed after August 2, 2026). Quote: 'This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Senegal is eliminated. If Senegal wins the tournament, this market will resolve to Champion.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Senegal is eliminated. If Senegal wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Senegal is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Senegal based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

These markets collectively track Senegal's progression through the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup tournament structure. A team's stage of elimination is determined by the farthest stage reached prior to any loss, withdrawal, forfeit, or disqualification. If a team loses in the Semifinals, the Semifinals market resolves to Yes regardless of third-place match results. If a team withdraws or is disqualified after advancing past a stage, the next stage they would have faced is considered their elimination point. For example, withdrawal after winning a Round of 32 match means the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes. The Outright Winner market resolves to Yes only if Senegal wins the Final, while the Runner-Up market resolves to Yes if Senegal loses in the Final.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Kalshi for the same underlying question: at which stage Senegal will be eliminated from the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup. The tracker displays current implied probabilities, historical price movements, and cumulative trading volume across both venues. By monitoring multiple platforms simultaneously, you gain a consensus view of market sentiment and can identify pricing discrepancies that may signal arbitrage opportunities or shifting expectations about Senegal's tournament performance.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed sportsbook odds, meaning prices reflect live supply and demand from traders. Sportsbooks typically offer tighter spreads and faster liquidity but may lag behind prediction markets in pricing efficiency. For Senegal's elimination stage, comparing the consensus prediction market probability to traditional sportsbook lines can reveal which venue prices in more pessimism or optimism about the team's depth and tournament trajectory. Prediction markets often lead sportsbooks on breaking news or injury updates.

Key catalysts include Senegal's qualifying performance and final seeding, squad roster announcements, injury updates to star players, and pre-tournament friendlies that signal team form. During the tournament itself, group-stage results will dramatically shift odds: a strong start may lengthen Senegal's odds of early elimination, while losses tighten them. Coaching changes, tactical adjustments, and draws against elite opponents all influence trader expectations. Media narratives around African team strength and Senegal's historical World Cup performance also shape sentiment and trading volume.