TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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World Cup: Saudi Arabia Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: Saudi Arabia Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$37,652

Group Stage

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 27, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 6:44 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Group Stage

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,444
N/A
N/A
$5,173
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Group Stage

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,939
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,420
N/A
N/A
$3,793
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,879
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,349
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$66
N/A
N/A
$66
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,309
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$66
N/A
N/A
$66
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,976
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$73
N/A
N/A
$73
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,648
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$323
N/A
N/A
$303
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,029
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$132
N/A
N/A
$132
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks the stage at which Saudi Arabia is eliminated from the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup, or whether they win the tournament. Both platforms offer markets covering all possible elimination stages (Group Stage through Final) plus a champion outcome, with resolution tied to official FIFA tournament results.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses binary Yes/No resolution for all tournament outcomes including championship, while Polymarket uses categorical outcomes (Champion, Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final, Other). Polymarket also explicitly addresses disqualification, withdrawal, and tournament cancellation scenarios; Kalshi does not.Hero tip: Do not assume the two platforms are trading identical propositions. Kalshi's market resolves Yes if Saudi Arabia either is eliminated at any stage OR wins the tournament. Polymarket's market resolves to a specific stage label or Champion. Confirm the exact market structure on each platform before trading. Pay special attention to Polymarket's "Other" resolution for tournament cancellations after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary Yes/No framework where Yes covers all seven scenarios: elimination in Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final, or championship victory. No explicit handling of disqualification, withdrawal, or cancellation. Quote: 'If Saudi Arabia wins the Final in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Categorical outcome framework with distinct resolution labels for each stage (Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final, Champion, Other). Includes explicit contingency rules: disqualification/withdrawal resolves to furthest completed round; tournament cancellation after August 2, 2026 resolves to Other. Quote: 'If Saudi Arabia is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Saudi Arabia is eliminated. If Saudi Arabia wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Saudi Arabia is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Saudi Arabia based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Each market tracks Saudi Arabia's elimination at a specific stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, with one market also covering an outright tournament victory. A team's stage of elimination is determined by the farthest stage they reached prior to any withdrawal, forfeit, or disqualification. For example, if a team withdraws after winning a Round of 32 match, the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes, representing the next stage where they would have competed. A team that loses in the Semifinals resolves the Semifinals market to Yes regardless of third-place match results. The Group Stage market resolves to Yes if the team fails to advance from group play. The Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, and Semifinals markets each resolve to Yes if the team is eliminated at those respective stages. The Runner-Up market resolves to Yes if Saudi Arabia loses the Final. The Outright Winner market resolves to Yes only if Saudi Arabia wins the Final.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Kalshi for the same core question: at which stage Saudi Arabia will be eliminated from the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. The tracker displays live chance percentages, 24-hour volume snapshots, and consensus sentiment across both platforms. By monitoring multiple prediction markets simultaneously, you gain visibility into how professional traders and the broader crowd assess Saudi Arabia's tournament longevity, from group stage exit through potential deep-run scenarios. This cross-platform view reveals where market conviction is strongest and where disagreement exists.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate independently of traditional sportsbooks and often reflect different liquidity, trader composition, and risk models. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin; prediction markets aggregate decentralized belief. For Saudi Arabia's elimination stage, prediction market odds may diverge from sportsbook lines because traders on Polymarket and Kalshi price in longer-tail scenarios, react faster to news, or attract different participant demographics. Direct comparison requires checking both channels in parallel, as prediction markets can lead or lag sportsbook consensus depending on information flow and capital concentration.

Key catalysts include Saudi Arabia's final group draw announcement, squad roster changes, injury updates to star players, and pre-tournament friendlies that signal team form. Once the tournament begins, group-stage results will be the primary driver: wins improve odds of advancing deeper, while losses increase elimination probability. Head-to-head matchups against stronger opponents, referee decisions, and late-stage injuries can shift market sentiment rapidly. Media narratives around Saudi Arabia's coaching staff, tactical adjustments, and comparative strength versus group rivals will also influence trader positioning. Real-time score updates during matches typically trigger sharp repricing.