TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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World Cup: Qatar Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: Qatar Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$53,852

Group Stage

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jul 19, 3:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Group Stage

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$17,734
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Group Stage

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$17,391
N/A
N/A
$13,113
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,562
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,117
N/A
N/A
$2,823
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,755
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$626
N/A
N/A
$354
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,239
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$290
N/A
N/A
$290
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,112
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$228
N/A
N/A
$165
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,779
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$126
N/A
N/A
$126
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$947
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$946
N/A
N/A
$946
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks Qatar's elimination stage in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Markets resolve based on the furthest round Qatar reaches—from Group Stage through winning the tournament. The core question is: at which stage will Qatar's World Cup campaign end?

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses binary Yes/No resolution for all elimination outcomes plus championship, while Polymarket uses categorical resolution by stage. The markets measure different dimensions of the same event.Hero tip: Kalshi's market conflates elimination with championship (both are Yes), making it unsuitable for directional Qatar performance bets. Use Polymarket for stage-specific exposure. If you want to bet Qatar does NOT reach a specific stage, Kalshi's Yes outcome is ambiguous—it could mean early elimination or championship.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary Yes/No structure. All seven conditions (Group Stage elimination through Final elimination, plus championship) resolve to Yes. No distinction between outcomes. Key Quote: 'If Qatar wins the Final in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Categorical resolution by stage: Champion, Final, Semifinals, Quarterfinals, Round of 16, Round of 32, Group Stage, or Other. Each outcome is mutually exclusive and represents the furthest stage reached. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Qatar is eliminated. If Qatar wins the tournament, this market will resolve to Champion.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Qatar is eliminated. If Qatar wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Qatar is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Qatar based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

These markets collectively track Qatar's progression through the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup tournament structure. A team's stage of elimination is determined by the farthest stage reached prior to any loss, withdrawal, forfeit, or disqualification. If a team loses in the Semifinals, the Semifinals market resolves to Yes regardless of third-place match results. If a team withdraws or is disqualified after advancing past a stage, the next stage they would have faced is considered their elimination point. For example, withdrawal after winning a Round of 32 match means the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes. The Outright Winner market resolves to Yes only if Qatar wins the Final, while the Runner-Up market resolves to Yes if Qatar loses in the Final.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity for Qatar's elimination stage performance across Polymarket and Kalshi. It tracks consensus probability estimates on whether Qatar will be eliminated at specific tournament stages, displays current market prices from both platforms, and monitors total trading volume to reflect market conviction. By comparing outcomes side-by-side, you gain visibility into how different prediction market communities assess Qatar's World Cup prospects and where agreement or divergence exists between major decentralized and regulated platforms.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket and Kalshi reflect real-time crowd sentiment and are often more dynamic than traditional sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks typically adjust odds based on liability management and fixed margins, while prediction markets price outcomes through continuous trading. For Qatar's elimination stage, prediction market odds may move faster in response to team news, injuries, or tactical shifts. Comparing both sources helps identify where professional bookmakers and decentralized traders diverge, potentially revealing value or consensus blind spots in World Cup pricing.

Polymarket and Kalshi may price Qatar's elimination stage differently due to distinct user bases, liquidity pools, and market microstructure. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket operates under U.S. regulatory oversight with specific contract definitions, while Kalshi operates globally with different settlement frameworks. Variations in trader sophistication, geographic exposure to Qatar football, and timing of information flow can also create temporary price gaps. These spreads typically narrow as arbitrageurs trade across platforms, but divergence windows offer opportunities to identify which market is pricing Qatar's prospects more accurately.

Key catalysts include Qatar's pre-tournament friendlies, squad roster announcements, and injury updates to star players. Coaching changes or tactical shifts in preparation will influence market sentiment. During the tournament itself, Qatar's group-stage results, goal differential, and head-to-head outcomes directly impact elimination probability. Broader World Cup narratives—such as upsets by other nations or shifts in regional football momentum—can also move odds. Real-time match data, referee decisions, and late-breaking team news will drive continuous repricing across both Polymarket and Kalshi through the tournament window.