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World Cup: Portugal Stage of Elimination
kalshi
predict
polymarket

World Cup: Portugal Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$768,151

Round of 16

all

3 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 6, 2026

Closed: Jul 19, 3:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Round of 16

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$79,875
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Round of 16

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$64,397
N/A
N/A
$40,277
Settled
Yes
predict

Round of 16

View
N/A
N/A
—
$82
$144
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$205,103
N/A
N/A
$151,252
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$61,897
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Champion

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$14,865
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$66,584
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$57,747
N/A
N/A
$28,670
Settled
No
predict

Round of 32

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$1,119
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$47,182
N/A
N/A
$31,625
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,511
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Quarterfinals

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$591
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$39,317
N/A
N/A
$22,133
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,663
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Semifinals

View
N/A
N/A
—
$1
$465
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24,216
N/A
N/A
$21,686
Settled
No
polymarket

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,639
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Group Stage

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,619
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23,451
N/A
N/A
$20,759
Settled
No
predict

Final

View
N/A
N/A
—
$3
$766
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 22

Intro

This market tracks the stage at which Portugal will be eliminated from the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Across Kalshi, Predict, and Polymarket, the aggregated consensus shows a 65.5% probability that Portugal is eliminated in the Round of 16. Resolution will be determined by Official FIFA sources from fifa.com, with credible reporting accepted as a secondary source. Watch for Portugal's group stage performance and knockout draw announcement leading up to the tournament conclusion on July 20, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All three platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict) apply identical resolution logic: Portugal's elimination stage or championship status, with consistent edge case handling for disqualification, withdrawal, and tournament cancellation.Primary resolution logic: Official FIFA sources (fifa.com); consensus of credible reporting accepted as secondary source

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves to the stage at which Portugal is eliminated: Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, or Final
  • If Portugal wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup, market resolves to 'Champion'
  • If Portugal is disqualified, withdraws, or is removed from the tournament, resolution reflects the furthest completed round reached
  • If the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, resolution is based on the furthest completed round per best available official information
  • If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full or postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, market resolves to 'Other'

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tournament Cancellation: If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled entirely or postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to 'Other'
  • Disqualification or Withdrawal: If Portugal is disqualified, withdraws, or is removed from the tournament, resolution is based on the furthest completed round reached by Portugal
  • Incomplete Tournament: If the tournament is not completed for any reason, resolution reflects the furthest completed round per best available official information
  • Championship Victory: If Portugal wins the Final and becomes World Cup Champion, market resolves to 'Champion' (not 'Final')
Timing: Resolution occurs after Portugal's final match in the 2026 FIFA World Cup or upon tournament cancellation/postponement after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ETOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Portugal is eliminated. If Portugal wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Portugal is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Portugal based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Portugal's stage of elimination is determined by the furthest point at which the team is knocked out of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. If Portugal fails to advance from the Group Stage, that market resolves to Yes. If Portugal advances past the Group Stage but is eliminated in the Round of 32, the Round of 32 market resolves to Yes, and so forth through the Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and Final. A team that loses in the Semifinals resolves the Semifinals market to Yes regardless of third-place match results. If Portugal withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified at any point, their stage of elimination is determined by the farthest stage they reached prior to such action—for example, withdrawal after a Round of 32 victory means the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes. If Portugal wins the Final, the Outright Winner market resolves to Yes.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Portugal is eliminated. If Portugal wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Portugal is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Portugal based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer order books where traders set their own odds, often reflecting sharper, more dynamic pricing than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are set by oddsmakers and adjusted for margin; prediction markets have no built-in vig and respond instantly to new information. For Portugal's World Cup stage, market odds may diverge from sportsbooks based on real-time betting flow, injury news, and tactical shifts. Comparing both sources helps identify value and consensus confidence in Portugal's elimination-round prospects.

Key catalysts include Portugal squad announcements, injury updates to star players, and pre-tournament friendlies that signal form and tactical readiness. Group-stage draw results and opponent strength will shift elimination probabilities sharply. During the tournament, Portugal's actual group-stage performance, goal-scoring trends, and defensive vulnerabilities will drive rapid repricing. Geopolitical factors, referee assignments, and weather conditions in host venues may also influence market sentiment. Real-time social media sentiment and expert punditry often precede measurable odds movements.