TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 12, 11:59 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player takes the field as a member of the USA's official starting lineup for the first group stage game the nation plays at 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If a player is officially announced as part of the starting lineup but is replaced before the game begins for any reason, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". Only players that are on the pitch at kick off will be counted toward a "Yes" resolution. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after June 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the listed player cannot be confirmed as a part of the USA's official 1st match starting lineup for the 2026 FIFA World Cup within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player takes the field as a member of the USA's official starting lineup for the first group stage game the nation plays at 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If a player is officially announced as part of the starting lineup but is replaced before the game begins for any reason, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". Only players that are on the pitch at kick off will be counted toward a "Yes" resolution. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after June 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the listed player cannot be confirmed as a part of the USA's official 1st match starting lineup for the 2026 FIFA World Cup within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they serve different purposes and audiences. Sportsbooks set odds primarily to balance action and generate profit margins, while prediction markets like this one aggregate trader beliefs about actual outcomes through financial incentives. Prediction markets typically incorporate real-time information faster and reflect genuine probability estimates rather than house margins. For USA roster decisions, prediction market prices may shift more dynamically as team news, injuries, and tactical announcements break, whereas sportsbooks adjust more conservatively to protect their books.
On Polymarket, traders set prices for each player outcome through an automated market maker mechanism, where buying and selling pressure directly determines the odds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each player's contract trades between 0 and 100 cents, representing the implied probability of starting. As traders buy contracts they believe are underpriced, the cost rises; selling pressure drives prices down. This continuous price discovery reflects the collective confidence of the trading community regarding which players will make the starting lineup.
This market resolves around Jun 13, 2026, once the USA's starting 11 is officially announced and verified. The outcome is confirmed through credible public reporting of the team sheet and match lineups. Contracts for players who appear in the starting formation will be marked as correct, while those who do not start will resolve to zero. Resolution timing depends on when official team announcements are made public and can be independently verified.
Key catalysts include player injuries or fitness updates, official team news from coaching staff, tactical shifts in formation, and competitive dynamics within the squad. International friendlies and qualifying matches leading up to the World Cup provide signals about selection preferences. Media reports on player form, disciplinary issues, or contract disputes can shift trader expectations. Roster announcements and pre-tournament squad confirmations typically trigger sharp repricing. Real-time developments during group-stage matches will also influence odds for subsequent fixtures as coaches adjust their lineups based on performance and circumstances.