TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Round of 16
all
3 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
Limitless
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 5, 2026
Closed: Jul 4, 7:39 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group tracks Paraguay's elimination stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup across multiple prediction platforms. Markets collectively assess whether Paraguay will be eliminated at specific tournament stages (Group Stage, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final) or win the tournament outright.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi contains a logical contradiction: rule 6 states Paraguay winning the Final resolves YES, but rules 1-5 state any elimination resolves YES. A single outcome cannot simultaneously be both a win and an elimination. Additionally, Kalshi's scope (any elimination stage) is incompatible with Polymarket's mutually exclusive outcome model (specific stage OR champion OR other).Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi until rule 6 is clarified or removed. The market is logically unresolvable as written. Polymarket offers the clearest resolution framework with mutually exclusive outcomes. Limitless measures a different concept (quarterfinal advancement) and should not be cross-hedged with elimination-stage markets.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Resolves YES for elimination at any stage (Group, R16, QF, SF, Final) AND YES if Paraguay wins the tournament. Logical contradiction: rule 6 'If Paraguay wins the Final in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes' directly conflicts with rules 1-5 which also resolve YES for elimination outcomes.
- Polymarket: Resolves to mutually exclusive outcomes: specific elimination stage (Group, R16, QF, SF, Final), 'Champion' if Paraguay wins, or 'Other' for cancellation/disqualification. Each outcome maps to exactly one resolution state. Key quote: 'This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Paraguay is eliminated... If Paraguay wins the tournament, this market will resolve to Champion.'
- Limitless: Binary YES/NO on whether Paraguay reaches quarterfinals. Resolves YES only if Paraguay advances past Round of 16. Resolves NO if eliminated before quarterfinals or if tournament is cancelled/postponed after July 31, 2026. Measures advancement threshold, not elimination stage.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Paraguay is eliminated. If Paraguay wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Paraguay is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Paraguay based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
Paraguay's stage of elimination is determined by the furthest point at which the team is knocked out of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. If Paraguay fails to advance from the Group Stage, that market resolves to Yes. If Paraguay advances past the Group Stage but is eliminated in the Round of 32, the Round of 32 market resolves to Yes, and so forth through the Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and Final. A team that loses in the Semifinals resolves the Semifinals market to Yes regardless of third-place match results. If Paraguay withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified at any point, their stage of elimination is determined by the farthest stage they reached prior to such action—for example, withdrawal after a Round of 32 victory means the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes. If Paraguay wins the Final, the Outright Winner market resolves to Yes.
Limitless
This market will resolve to "YES" if Paraguay advances to the quarter-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "NO." If at any point it becomes impossible for Paraguay to advance to the quarter-finals (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated or knocked out), this market will resolve to "NO." If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC, or the 2026 FIFA World Cup quarter-final matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "NO." The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA.com; however, if the data on the website is unavailable for 72 hours after the relevant matches are completed, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate independently from traditional sportsbooks and often reflect different risk models, trader composition, and liquidity patterns. While sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin, prediction markets aggregate decentralized trader beliefs in real time. For Paraguay's World Cup elimination stage, prediction market prices may diverge from sportsbook lines due to different information sets, regulatory constraints, and the absence of a built-in house edge in some decentralized venues.
Key catalysts include Paraguay's qualifying performance and final seeding for the 2026 tournament, injury updates for star players, coaching changes, and pre-tournament friendlies that signal team strength. During the World Cup itself, Paraguay's group-stage results, goal differential, and head-to-head outcomes will drive sharp repricing. Unexpected upsets, tactical shifts, and momentum swings in each knockout round will move odds as traders reassess elimination probability in real time.
