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World Cup: Panama Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: Panama Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$76,079

Group Stage

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 24, 12:13 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Group Stage

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26,596
N/A
N/A
$17,223
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Group Stage

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$19,212
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,788
N/A
N/A
$8,466
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,111
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,090
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,081
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,437
N/A
N/A
$1,437
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,728
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$66
N/A
N/A
$66
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,195
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$564
N/A
N/A
$564
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,071
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$89
N/A
N/A
$70
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks Panama's elimination stage in the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup. Markets across platforms ask whether Panama will be eliminated at specific tournament stages (Group Stage through Final), win the tournament, or finish in another position. Resolution depends on identifying the exact stage at which Panama's tournament participation ends.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Market Architecture Mismatch: Kalshi presents seven binary Yes/No markets that are logically redundant and perfectly correlated, while Polymarket uses a single categorical resolution with mutually exclusive outcomes. Both resolve based on the same underlying event (Panama's tournament stage), but the trading mechanics and correlation structure differ significantly.Hero tip: On Kalshi, all seven binary markets will resolve to Yes simultaneously—they are not independent bets. Polymarket's categorical structure is the correct framework for stage-specific predictions. If trading Kalshi, understand you are buying correlated exposure, not diversified stage bets. Arbitrage may exist if one platform misprices the certainty that Panama must exit at some stage.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Seven separate binary markets, each asking if Panama is eliminated at a specific stage or wins the tournament. All seven conditions resolve to Yes because Panama must exit at exactly one stage or win. Quote: 'If Panama is eliminated in the Group Stage... then the market resolves to Yes' through 'If Panama wins the Final... then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates perfect correlation—all seven markets move together.
  • Polymarket: Single categorical market with eight mutually exclusive outcomes: Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final, Champion, or Other. Only one outcome resolves to Yes. Includes explicit edge case handling: 'If Panama is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament... this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached.' Tournament cancellation after August 2, 2026 resolves to Other.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Panama is eliminated. If Panama wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Panama is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Panama based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Panama's stage of elimination is determined by the furthest point at which the team is knocked out of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. If Panama fails to advance from the Group Stage, that market resolves to Yes. If Panama advances past the Group Stage but is eliminated in the Round of 32, the Round of 32 market resolves to Yes, and so forth through the Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and Final. A team that loses in the Semifinals resolves the Semifinals market to Yes regardless of third-place match results. If Panama withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified at any point, their stage of elimination is determined by the farthest stage they reached prior to such action—for example, withdrawal after a Round of 32 victory means the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes. If Panama wins the Final, the Outright Winner market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity for Panama's stage of elimination at the 2026 FIFA World Cup across Polymarket and Kalshi. It tracks whether Panama will exit during the group stage, knockout rounds, or advance further. The dashboard displays live consensus probability across both platforms, total trading volume, and 24-hour activity to show where prediction market participants believe Panama's tournament run will end. By monitoring multiple venues simultaneously, you gain a comprehensive view of how professional traders and the broader market are pricing Panama's World Cup prospects.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate independently from traditional sportsbooks and often reflect different risk profiles, liquidity conditions, and trader composition. While sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin, prediction markets aggregate decentralized participant beliefs in real time. For Panama's stage of elimination, prediction market odds may diverge from sportsbook lines due to differences in available liquidity, settlement certainty, and the types of participants active on each venue. Comparing both sources helps identify where consensus is strongest and where outlier views exist.

Panama's stage of elimination odds will shift based on team roster announcements, qualifying performance, and pre-tournament friendlies. During the tournament, group-stage results are the primary catalyst—wins improve advancement odds, while losses increase elimination probability. Injuries to key players, coaching changes, and strength-of-schedule updates will also move markets. Real-time match outcomes, goal differentials, and head-to-head results against group opponents directly influence whether Panama progresses to knockout rounds. Media narratives and updated power rankings from analysts and betting syndicates can amplify or dampen these moves.