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World Cup: Norway Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket
limitless

World Cup: Norway Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$1,282,161

Quarterfinals

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 12, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 9:39 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$168,281
N/A
N/A
$115,513
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$74,499
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$273,695
N/A
N/A
$251,731
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$90,037
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$124,836
N/A
N/A
$97,887
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$65,206
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$107,286
N/A
N/A
$83,969
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,906
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$88,447
N/A
N/A
$81,893
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$76,416
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$70,894
N/A
N/A
$47,601
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$49,920
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

Norway to reach the Semi-Finals at 2026 WC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$50
$62,814
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,269
N/A
N/A
$5,346
Settled
No
polymarket

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,656
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 16

Intro

This market tracks whether Norway will advance to the semi-finals of the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup. Across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless, the aggregated consensus shows 0.0% probability for Norway reaching the semi-finals, with 100.0% probability assigned to elimination in the quarterfinals. Resolution will be determined by official FIFA records. Watch for Norway's performance in the group stage and knockout rounds leading up to the semi-final window on July 13, 2026, which will definitively establish their tournament progression.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Three platforms employ incompatible market structures: Kalshi uses a binary YES-for-all-outcomes model, Polymarket uses categorical stage resolution, and Limitless uses a binary threshold-specific model. This creates structural misalignment rather than a factual contradiction.Hero tip: Treat each platform independently. Kalshi's market is not a hedge against Polymarket or Limitless; it resolves YES regardless of outcome. For stage-specific predictions, use Polymarket. For semi-final qualification exposure, use Limitless. Do not cross-platform arbitrage these markets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary YES/NO framework where YES resolves for any outcome: championship win, or elimination at any stage (Group, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, or Final). Effectively a participation market with no NO scenario under normal tournament completion.
  • Polymarket: Categorical resolution with outcomes: Champion, Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final, or Other. Handles disqualification, withdrawal, and tournament cancellation/postponement after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as 'Other'.
  • Limitless: Binary YES/NO specific to semi-final advancement only. Resolves YES only if Norway advances to semi-finals; resolves NO if eliminated earlier or if tournament is cancelled/postponed after July 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Norway is eliminated. If Norway wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Norway is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Norway based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Norway's stage of elimination is determined by the furthest point at which the team is knocked out of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. If Norway fails to advance from the Group Stage, that market resolves to Yes. If Norway advances past the Group Stage but is eliminated in the Round of 32, the Round of 32 market resolves to Yes, and so forth through the Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and Final. A team that loses in the Semifinals resolves the Semifinals market to Yes regardless of third-place match results. If Norway withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified at any point, their stage of elimination is determined by the farthest stage they reached prior to such action—for example, withdrawal after a Round of 32 victory means the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes. If Norway wins the Final, the Outright Winner market resolves to Yes.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "YES" if Norway advances to the semi-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "NO." If at any point it becomes impossible for Norway to advance to the semi-finals (e.g. they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve to "NO" immediately. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled or postponed after July 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC, or the semi-final matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "NO." The resolution source for this market is official information from FIFA.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Kalshi for the same core question: whether Norway will be eliminated during the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. You can monitor live chance percentages, trading volume, and consensus probability shifts across both platforms simultaneously. The multi-platform view lets you compare how different prediction markets price Norway's elimination risk, revealing where traders see the highest conviction and where liquidity concentrates. This cross-platform tracking helps you spot divergences and understand the broader market sentiment on Norway's World Cup prospects.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate independently from traditional sportsbooks, often reflecting different trader bases, liquidity pools, and risk models. While sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and profit margins, prediction markets aggregate decentralized trader beliefs in real time. For Norway's group-stage elimination, prediction market odds may diverge from sportsbook lines due to differences in information access, position sizing, and market microstructure. Comparing the two can reveal arbitrage opportunities or signal where professional and retail traders disagree on Norway's tournament survival odds.

Key catalysts include Norway's qualifying performance and final group draw announcement, which will reveal their opponents and match schedule. Injuries to star players, coaching changes, or roster updates can shift elimination risk. Pre-tournament friendlies and warm-up matches provide form signals that traders will price in. During the group stage itself, each match result—wins, losses, or draws—will trigger sharp repricing. Goal differential, head-to-head tiebreaker scenarios, and concurrent matches involving other group teams also influence Norway's advancement odds. Real-time betting activity and media sentiment around Norway's tournament prospects will continuously move prices.