TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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World Cup: New Zealand Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: New Zealand Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$34,005

Group Stage

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 27, 2026

Closed: Jul 19, 3:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Group Stage

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$13,003
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Group Stage

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,294
N/A
N/A
$4,393
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,037
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,009
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,858
N/A
N/A
$1,652
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,343
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,714
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$182
N/A
N/A
$172
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,484
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$105
N/A
N/A
$64
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$776
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$101
N/A
N/A
$101
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks at which stage of the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup New Zealand will be eliminated, or whether they will win the tournament. Markets across platforms offer granular resolution based on New Zealand's furthest advancement in the competition.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses a binary YES/NO structure where all elimination stages and championship resolution collapse into YES, creating logical ambiguity about which outcome actually occurred. Polymarket uses a categorical outcome model with mutually exclusive stages, providing clear stage-specific resolution.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is logically flawed for stage-specific prediction; it functions as a catch-all YES for any non-Group-Stage outcome. Use Polymarket's categorical markets for precise stage-level exposure. Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket markets are equivalent.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary YES/NO framework where conditions 1-7 all resolve to YES. Conditions include Group Stage elimination, Round of 32 elimination, Round of 16 elimination, Quarterfinals elimination, Semifinals elimination, Final elimination, AND championship win. This creates a logical impossibility: a single binary market cannot distinguish between these mutually exclusive outcomes. Key quote: 'If New Zealand is eliminated in the Group Stage... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If New Zealand wins the Final... then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Categorical outcome model with distinct, mutually exclusive resolution categories: Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final, Champion, and Other. Each market question targets a specific stage. Resolution follows the furthest completed round reached. Key quote: 'This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which New Zealand is eliminated... If New Zealand wins the tournament, this market will resolve to Champion.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which New Zealand is eliminated. If New Zealand wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If New Zealand is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by New Zealand based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

New Zealand's stage of elimination is determined by the furthest point at which the team is knocked out of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. If New Zealand fails to advance from the Group Stage, that market resolves to Yes. If New Zealand advances past the Group Stage but is eliminated in the Round of 32, the Round of 32 market resolves to Yes, and so forth through the Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and Final. A team that loses in the Semifinals resolves the Semifinals market to Yes regardless of third-place match results. If New Zealand withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified at any point, their stage of elimination is determined by the farthest stage they reached prior to such action—for example, withdrawal after a Round of 32 victory means the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes. If New Zealand wins the Final, the Outright Winner market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Kalshi for the same core question: whether New Zealand will be eliminated during the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. You can monitor live probability estimates, 24-hour volume trends, and consensus pricing across both platforms simultaneously. The tracker displays each platform's implied chance percentage and liquidity depth, helping you identify where the market leans and spot divergences in real time. This multi-platform view provides a comprehensive snapshot of how prediction market participants are pricing New Zealand's group-stage survival odds.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi often reflect different risk profiles and participant bases than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks build in margin and cater to retail bettors with fixed odds; prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs in real time and adjust continuously. For New Zealand's group-stage elimination odds, prediction markets may price in sharper analytical consensus, while sportsbooks may emphasize brand recognition or public betting patterns. Direct comparison requires checking both simultaneously, as prediction market prices update faster and can diverge meaningfully from sportsbook lines, especially as tournament fixtures and team news evolve.

Key catalysts include New Zealand's qualifying campaign results, squad injuries or roster changes, and official group-stage draw announcements. Opponent strength, home-field advantage, and recent international form all influence elimination risk. Coaching changes, player transfers, and pre-tournament friendlies provide new information. Media coverage of New Zealand's preparation and expert analysis can shift trader sentiment. Odds typically tighten as the tournament approaches and group matchups become certain. Early group-stage results—especially New Zealand's opening fixtures—will be the most powerful price movers, as actual performance replaces speculation.