TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Quarterfinals
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 10, 2026
Closed: Jul 9, 6:19 PM EST
Kalshi
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Filthy Fellas: Morocco to reach the quarter-finals at the 2026 WC?
Intro
This market tracks whether Morocco will be eliminated specifically in the Quarterfinals stage of the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup. Across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless, the aggregated consensus probability stands at 77.5% for Quarterfinal elimination. The market resolves based on Morocco's actual performance in the tournament as determined by official FIFA records. Watch for Morocco's Round of 16 result in mid-July 2026, which will determine whether the team advances to the Quarterfinals and remains in contention.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi's resolution logic is internally contradictory: all seven markets resolve YES for mutually exclusive outcomes (every possible tournament result, including both elimination and winning). Polymarket and Limitless use logically sound binary elimination criteria where each outcome is mutually exclusive.Hero tip: Kalshi markets in this group are unresolvable as written. Polymarket and Limitless markets are logically consistent and tradeable. Do not rely on Kalshi for settlement; escalate to platform support for clarification before any Kalshi position matures.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: All seven markets (Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final elimination, and winning the tournament) resolve YES. This is a logical contradiction because Morocco cannot simultaneously be eliminated in Group Stage AND win the Final. Key quote: 'If Morocco is eliminated in the Group Stage...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Morocco wins the Final...then the market resolves to Yes.' These are mutually exclusive events, yet both trigger YES.
- Polymarket: Markets use standard binary logic: each market resolves YES only if that specific elimination stage occurs, NO otherwise. For example, 'Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 16?' resolves YES only if Morocco is eliminated in Round of 16. A separate market 'Will Morocco win the World Cup?' resolves YES only if Morocco wins. These are mutually exclusive and logically sound. Key quote: 'This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Morocco is eliminated...If Morocco wins the tournament, this market will resolve to Champion.'
- Limitless: Binary advancement logic: 'Will Morocco reach the quarter-finals?' resolves YES if Morocco advances to quarterfinals, NO if eliminated before that stage. Logically sound and mutually exclusive with other stage-specific markets. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to YES if Morocco advances to the quarter-finals...Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.'
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Morocco is eliminated. If Morocco wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Morocco is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Morocco based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
Morocco's stage of elimination is determined by the furthest point at which the team is knocked out of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. If Morocco fails to advance from the Group Stage, that market resolves to Yes. If Morocco advances past the Group Stage but is eliminated in the Round of 32, the Round of 32 market resolves to Yes, and so forth through the Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and Final. A team that loses in the Semifinals resolves the Semifinals market to Yes regardless of third-place match results. If Morocco withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified at any point, their stage of elimination is determined by the farthest stage they reached prior to such action—for example, withdrawal after a Round of 32 victory means the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes. If Morocco wins the Final, the Outright Winner market resolves to Yes.
Limitless
This market will resolve to "YES" if Morocco advances to the quarter-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "NO." If at any point it becomes impossible for Morocco to advance to the quarter-finals (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated or knocked out), this market will resolve to "NO." If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 11, 2026, 23:59 UTC, or the 2026 FIFA World Cup quarter-final matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "NO." The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate independently from traditional sportsbooks, often reflecting different liquidity pools, trader demographics, and risk models. Sportsbooks typically incorporate sharp-action betting and margin requirements, while decentralized prediction markets aggregate peer-to-peer beliefs with lower friction. For Morocco's World Cup elimination stage, comparing prediction market consensus to major sportsbook lines can reveal arbitrage opportunities and signal where informed traders believe true probability diverges from bookmaker pricing.
Key catalysts include Morocco's performance in qualifying matches, squad roster announcements, and injury updates to star players. Tactical shifts, coaching changes, and draw results for the 2026 World Cup group stage will significantly reprrice Morocco's elimination odds. Betting action from sharp traders and institutional money often precedes major tournaments, creating volatility. Regional geopolitical developments, player transfers, and form trends in the months leading up to the tournament can also shift market sentiment about Morocco's depth and tournament viability.
