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World Cup: Julian Alvarez Goals
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: Julian Alvarez Goals

Volume:
$70,662

1+

 - Polymarket

1+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 20, 2026

Closed: Aug 2, 11:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

1+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,649
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

2+ goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,792
N/A
N/A
$14,635
Settled
No
polymarket

2+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,574
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

3+ goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,135
N/A
N/A
$11,124
Settled
No
polymarket

3+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,740
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,239
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4+ goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,332
N/A
N/A
$1,212
Settled
No
polymarket

6+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,468
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

6+ goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$474
N/A
N/A
$426
Settled
No
polymarket

5+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,171
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5+ goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$87
N/A
N/A
$53
Settled
No
kalshi

7+ goals

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This event group tracks whether Julian Alvarez will score a specified minimum number of goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup tournament. Markets are offered across multiple thresholds (1+, 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+, 6+, 7+ goals) on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with consistent resolution criteria focused on official FIFA records.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms apply identical goal-counting methodology (regulation + stoppage + extra time only), exclude penalty shootouts and own goals, and reference official FIFA records as the authoritative source.Primary resolution logic: Official FIFA scoresheet and records; credible reporting consensus as secondary source

Core resolution logic:

  • Count all goals scored by Julian Alvarez during the 2026 FIFA World Cup in regulation time, stoppage time, and extra time periods
  • Exclude penalty shootout goals and own goals from the total
  • Compare final goal total against the specified threshold (1+, 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+, 6+, or 7+) for each market
  • Resolve to Yes if goal total meets or exceeds the threshold; resolve to No if it falls below
  • Use official FIFA records as the definitive source; credible reporting consensus may be used if official records are unavailable

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Non-participation: If Julian Alvarez does not play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup for any reason, Polymarket resolves to No. Kalshi's resolution for this scenario is not explicitly specified.
  • Tournament cancellation or postponement: If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled or postponed after August 2, 2026 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to 50-50. Kalshi's resolution mechanism for this scenario is not specified.
  • Indeterminate goal count: If it cannot be determined how many goals Julian Alvarez scored within the tournament timeframe, Polymarket resolves to 50-50. Kalshi's resolution for this scenario is not explicitly specified.
  • Penalty shootout goals: Goals scored during penalty shootouts do not count toward the total on either platform.
Timing: Resolution occurs after the conclusion of the 2026 FIFA World Cup final match and official FIFA goal records are published or consensus is reached through credible reporting.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of goals Julian Alvarez scores during the 2026 FIFA World Cup equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only goals scored during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time count. Only goals credited on FIFA's official scoresheet will count. Penalty shootout goals do not count. Own goals do not count toward the final total. If Julian Alvarez does not play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup for any reason, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many goals Julian Alvarez scored within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Julian Alvarez's goal total is measured across the entire 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup tournament. Goals count if scored during regulation time, stoppage time, or extra time periods. Goals scored during penalty shootouts do not count. Goals scored in the third-place match are included in the total. Each market resolves Yes if Alvarez reaches or exceeds the specified goal threshold by the tournament's conclusion.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading mechanics, where odds emerge from continuous buy-sell activity rather than a sportsbook's fixed margin model. This typically produces tighter spreads and faster price discovery when new information surfaces. Sportsbooks, by contrast, set odds to balance liability and profit, often incorporating slower-moving consensus. For this market, comparing prediction market prices to major sportsbook lines on Alvarez's World Cup goal total can reveal whether traders are pricing in different injury risk, form expectations, or tournament role assumptions.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. The two platforms track different goal thresholds—Polymarket's 4+ outcome versus Kalshi's 6+ outcome—which naturally produces distinct probability curves. Beyond that structural difference, liquidity concentration, user demographics, and fee structures can cause price divergence. Polymarket may attract traders focused on lower-barrier predictions, while Kalshi's audience might skew toward higher conviction bets. Arbitrage opportunities occasionally emerge when one platform reprices faster than the other in response to team news or lineup announcements.

Alvarez's club form, injury status, and playing time in the months leading up to the World Cup are primary drivers. National team lineup announcements, coaching changes, or tactical shifts in Argentina's setup could reshape expectations around his role and minutes. Tournament-stage draws and group composition also matter—easier opponents may increase goal-scoring opportunities. Real-time performance during the group stage will trigger sharp repricing, as will any injuries to key teammates or changes in his position on the pitch.