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404,175

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2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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World Cup: Jordan Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: Jordan Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$45,758

Group Stage

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 24, 12:14 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Group Stage

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,623
N/A
N/A
$9,890
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Group Stage

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,108
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,416
N/A
N/A
$6,135
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$896
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,297
N/A
N/A
$5,255
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,614
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,370
N/A
N/A
$4,330
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,318
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,387
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$318
N/A
N/A
$318
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$989
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$541
N/A
N/A
$541
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$754
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$128
N/A
N/A
$128
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

These markets track at which stage of the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup Jordan will be eliminated, or whether they will win the tournament. Both platforms offer multiple outcome options covering all possible elimination stages (Group Stage through Final) plus a championship outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses a binary YES/NO resolution model where all elimination stages and championship collapse into YES, preventing granular outcome identification. Polymarket uses a categorical model with distinct mutually exclusive outcomes for each stage plus championship and Other.Hero tip: Trade on Polymarket for this event group. Its categorical structure allows precise settlement to a specific tournament stage. On Kalshi, the binary YES outcome is ambiguous across seven different scenarios, creating settlement risk and preventing accurate position management.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary YES/NO structure. All seven conditions (Group Stage elimination, Round of 32 elimination, Round of 16 elimination, Quarterfinals elimination, Semifinals elimination, Final elimination, and championship) resolve to YES. No mechanism to distinguish between outcomes. Quote: 'If Jordan is eliminated in the Group Stage... then the market resolves to Yes' through 'If Jordan wins the Final... then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Categorical outcome model with mutually exclusive resolution categories: Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final, Champion, and Other. Market resolves to the specific stage reached. Quote: 'This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Jordan is eliminated. If Jordan wins the tournament, this market will resolve to Champion.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Jordan is eliminated. If Jordan wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Jordan is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Jordan based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Jordan's stage of elimination is determined by the furthest round reached before losing or being removed from competition. If Jordan fails to advance past the group stage, the Group Stage market resolves to Yes. If Jordan advances but loses in the Round of 32, that market resolves to Yes. Progression continues through Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and Final stages. A loss in the Semifinals results in Yes for the Semifinals market regardless of third-place match outcome. If Jordan withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified at any point, their elimination stage is determined by the farthest stage previously reached; for example, withdrawal after a Round of 32 victory means the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes. If Jordan wins the Final, the Outright Winner market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity for Jordan's stage of elimination at the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup across Polymarket and Kalshi. It tracks whether Jordan will be eliminated in the group stage, knockout round, or advance further. By monitoring both platforms simultaneously, you see a consensus view of market probability, total liquidity across venues, and 24-hour volume trends. This cross-platform lens reveals where traders are most confident and identifies pricing divergences that may signal shifting sentiment or information asymmetries between communities.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed odds set by bookmakers. Sportsbooks typically adjust lines based on liability and sharp action, while prediction markets reflect aggregate trader belief in real time. For Jordan's World Cup stage, prediction market odds may move faster on breaking news—injuries, lineup changes, or group-stage results—since traders can instantly buy or sell positions. Sportsbooks often lag slightly but may offer tighter margins. Comparing both reveals whether consensus leans bullish or bearish on Jordan's tournament longevity.

Key catalysts include Jordan's qualifying campaign performance, roster announcements, and pre-tournament friendlies that reveal squad depth and tactical readiness. Group-stage draw results will heavily influence odds; a tough bracket shortens survival odds, while a favorable draw extends them. Injury updates to star players, coaching changes, and geopolitical developments affecting team morale can shift sentiment rapidly. Once the tournament begins, each group-stage match result directly impacts elimination probability. Late-breaking tactical shifts or unexpected player form during the competition will drive final price movements before resolution.