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World Cup: Japan Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: Japan Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$488,892

Round of 32

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 29, 2026

Closed: Jul 19, 3:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Round of 32

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$73,594
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Round of 32

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$71,473
N/A
N/A
$54,157
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$52,558
N/A
N/A
$28,265
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39,592
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47,881
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$35,109
N/A
N/A
$25,509
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$39,449
N/A
N/A
$36,794
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$34,150
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,496
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,782
N/A
N/A
$5,772
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,243
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,651
N/A
N/A
$13,059
Settled
No
polymarket

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,544
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,370
N/A
N/A
$9,297
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks at which stage Japan will be eliminated in the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup, or whether Japan wins the tournament. Both platforms offer markets covering all possible elimination stages (Group Stage through Final) plus a championship outcome, with consistent resolution tied to official FIFA tournament results.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms resolve identically based on Japan's furthest stage reached in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with consistent handling of edge cases including tournament disruption, disqualification, and championship victory.Primary resolution logic: Official FIFA sources (fifa.com) with credible reporting consensus as fallback

Core resolution logic:

  • If Japan is eliminated in Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, or Final, the corresponding elimination market resolves Yes
  • If Japan wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final, the championship market resolves Yes/Champion and all elimination markets resolve No
  • Resolution occurs immediately upon Japan's elimination or tournament conclusion
  • If Japan is disqualified, withdraws, or is removed from the tournament, resolution defaults to the furthest completed round Japan reached
  • If the tournament is cancelled in full or postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, markets resolve to Other/No Resolution

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tournament Cancellation or Postponement: If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled entirely or postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, markets resolve to Other (Polymarket) or No Resolution (Kalshi). If partially completed, resolution is based on the furthest completed round Japan reached.
  • Japan Disqualification or Withdrawal: If Japan is disqualified, withdraws, or is removed from the tournament before completion, the market resolves according to the furthest completed round Japan reached based on official FIFA information.
  • Championship Victory: If Japan wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the championship market resolves Yes/Champion. All stage-specific elimination markets resolve No, as Japan was not eliminated.
  • Tie-Breaking and Advancement: Standard FIFA tournament rules apply for tie-breaking, goal differential, and head-to-head records. Japan's advancement or elimination is determined by official FIFA tournament standings and match results.
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately upon Japan's elimination from the tournament or upon tournament conclusion. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is scheduled for June-July 2026. Final resolution deadline is August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for any tournament postponement clause to apply.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Japan is eliminated. If Japan wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Japan is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Japan based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Japan's stage of elimination is determined by the furthest round reached before losing or being removed from competition. If Japan fails to advance past the group stage, the Group Stage market resolves to Yes. If Japan advances but loses in the Round of 32, that market resolves to Yes. Progression continues through Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and Final stages. A loss in the Semifinals results in Yes for the Semifinals market regardless of third-place match outcome. If Japan withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified at any point, their elimination stage is determined by the farthest stage previously reached; for example, withdrawal after a Round of 32 victory means the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes. If Japan wins the Final, the Outright Winner market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Key catalysts include Japan's final group-stage draw and opponent strength, squad injuries or roster changes, recent international friendlies and qualifying performance, and broader tournament dynamics. Surprise results in other groups, shifts in betting consensus on favorites, and media narratives around Japan's form will ripple through prediction markets. As the tournament approaches, each match result will sharpen expectations; early group-stage outcomes will drive the largest repricing of Japan's elimination odds.