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24H VOL:

$113,466,932

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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World Cup: Iraq Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: Iraq Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$444,999

Group Stage

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 26, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 6:44 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Group Stage

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,513
N/A
N/A
$6,558
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Group Stage

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10,229
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$409,472
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$192
N/A
N/A
$192
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,068
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,943
N/A
N/A
$2,704
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,952
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$637
N/A
N/A
$637
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,352
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$331
N/A
N/A
$316
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,255
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$138
N/A
N/A
$128
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$867
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks at which stage Iraq will be eliminated in the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup, or whether Iraq will win the tournament. Both platforms offer markets covering all possible elimination stages (Group Stage through Final) plus a championship outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market conflates seven mutually exclusive outcomes into a single YES resolution, creating logical impossibility. Polymarket correctly structures these as distinct, mutually exclusive markets with proper resolution hierarchy.Hero tip: Trade only Polymarket markets for this event group. Kalshi's structure is fundamentally unresolvable because Iraq cannot satisfy multiple contradictory conditions simultaneously (e.g., eliminated in Group Stage AND wins the Final). Request clarification from Kalshi on whether this should be seven separate binary markets or a single categorical market.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Treats all seven conditions (Group Stage elimination, Round of 32 elimination, Round of 16 elimination, Quarterfinals elimination, Semifinals elimination, Final elimination, and championship) as separate YES triggers for a single market. This creates logical contradiction: Iraq cannot be eliminated in Group Stage AND win the Final simultaneously. No explicit handling of edge cases like disqualification or tournament cancellation.
  • Polymarket: Offers distinct markets for each outcome (Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final, Champion, Other) with mutually exclusive resolution. Includes explicit fallback logic for disqualification, withdrawal, removal, or incomplete tournament. Resolution source: official FIFA information with credible reporting consensus as secondary source.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Iraq is eliminated. If Iraq wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Iraq is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Iraq based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Iraq's stage of elimination is determined by the furthest round reached before losing or being removed from competition. If Iraq fails to advance past the group stage, the Group Stage market resolves to Yes. If Iraq advances but loses in the Round of 32, that market resolves to Yes. Progression continues through Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and Final stages. A loss in the Semifinals results in Yes for the Semifinals market regardless of third-place match outcome. If Iraq withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified at any point, their elimination stage is determined by the farthest stage previously reached; for example, withdrawal after a Round of 32 victory means the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes. If Iraq wins the Final, the Outright Winner market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Kalshi for the same underlying question: at which stage Iraq will be eliminated from the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup. The tracker displays consensus probability across both platforms, current bid-ask spreads, and cumulative trading volume to help you monitor how the market's conviction shifts as the tournament approaches. By comparing prices side-by-side, you gain visibility into where professional and retail traders are positioning themselves on Iraq's tournament longevity.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on real-money trading, where prices reflect live supply and demand rather than a sportsbook's fixed margin model. Sportsbooks typically embed a 4–6% vig and adjust lines to balance liability; prediction markets have lower overhead and tighter spreads. For Iraq's elimination stage, prediction market odds may move faster in response to team news, injuries, or draw updates because traders profit directly from accurate pricing. Comparing the two reveals whether traditional sportsbooks are overvaluing or undervaluing Iraq's survival odds.

Key catalysts include Iraq's performance in World Cup qualifying matches, injuries to star players, coaching changes, and the official 2026 group-stage draw announcement. Friendly match results and squad roster updates will shift trader expectations about Iraq's competitive strength. Geopolitical developments, federation governance changes, or sponsorship news can also influence sentiment. As the tournament approaches, each group-stage match result will reprrice the probability of Iraq advancing, with wins extending their survival odds and losses accelerating elimination expectations.