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World Cup: Ghana Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: Ghana Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$124,448

Round of 32

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 4, 2026

Closed: Jul 3, 11:50 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Round of 32

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$28,172
N/A
N/A
$21,015
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Round of 32

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$13,805
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,926
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$286
N/A
N/A
$271
Settled
No
kalshi

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,517
N/A
N/A
$12,688
Settled
No
polymarket

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,149
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,958
N/A
N/A
$3,425
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,185
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,267
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,860
N/A
N/A
$1,701
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,161
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$67
N/A
N/A
$67
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,764
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$330
N/A
N/A
$319
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks Ghana's elimination stage in the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup. Markets across platforms ask whether Ghana will be eliminated at specific tournament stages (Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final) or win the tournament outright.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses a single binary YES/NO market that treats all elimination stages and championship as YES outcomes, while Polymarket uses multiple discrete categorical markets with mutually exclusive outcomes. This creates a structural mismatch in how outcomes are encoded across platforms.Hero tip: Kalshi's binary framing is ambiguous: does championship = YES or NO? Polymarket is clearer with separate categorical markets per stage. If trading Kalshi, seek explicit clarification on whether a Ghana championship resolves YES or NO. For Polymarket, verify you are selecting the correct stage question. The two platforms are not directly comparable as single markets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Single binary market. All seven conditions (Group Stage elimination, Round of 32 elimination, Round of 16 elimination, Quarterfinals elimination, Semifinals elimination, Final elimination, and Championship win) resolve to YES. No NO outcome is defined for any stage. Key quote: 'If Ghana wins the Final in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Ten separate categorical markets, each addressing a specific outcome: Quarterfinals elimination, Semifinals elimination, Group Stage elimination, Round of 32 elimination, Final elimination, Round of 16 elimination, Championship win, and 'other position'. Each market is mutually exclusive. Championship is mapped to 'Champion' outcome, not YES on an elimination market. Key quote: 'If Ghana wins the tournament, this market will resolve to Champion.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Ghana is eliminated. If Ghana wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Ghana is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Ghana based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Ghana's stage of elimination is determined by the furthest round reached before losing or being removed from competition. If Ghana fails to advance past the group stage, the Group Stage market resolves to Yes. If Ghana advances but loses in the Round of 32, that market resolves to Yes. Progression continues through Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and Final stages. A loss in the Semifinals results in Yes for the Semifinals market regardless of third-place match outcome. If Ghana withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified at any point, their elimination stage is determined by the farthest stage previously reached; for example, withdrawal after a Round of 32 victory means the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes. If Ghana wins the Final, the Outright Winner market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Kalshi for Ghana's elimination stage in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. It displays the consensus probability of when Ghana will exit the tournament, ranging from Round of 16 through later stages. The dashboard tracks current implied odds, 24-hour volume, and price movements across both platforms, giving traders a unified view of how prediction markets are pricing Ghana's tournament longevity. This cross-platform lens reveals where the market consensus lies and highlights any divergence between venues.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi often reflect sharper, more granular odds than traditional sportsbooks because they allow peer-to-peer trading and continuous price discovery. Sportsbooks typically offer fixed odds with built-in margins, while prediction markets aggregate real-time belief from thousands of traders. For Ghana's World Cup elimination stage, prediction market odds may move faster in response to team news, injury reports, and qualifying performance. However, sportsbook odds remain useful for calibration and comparison, as they represent institutional risk management and can sometimes capture information prediction markets lag on.