TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Iran
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4 markets
Limitless
Kalshi
Polymarket
Predict
consensus
News
Positive
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 3, 2026
World Cup: Furthest Advancing Asian Nation: Iran
$
Intro
This market tracks which Asian Football Confederation nation will advance furthest in the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup. Across Limitless, Predict, Kalshi, and Polymarket, Australia leads the consensus at 50.0%, with Japan close behind at 49.0%. Resolution will be determined by official FIFA information, with credible reporting consensus serving as a secondary source. Watch for the tournament's conclusion on July 19, 2026, when the final stage reached by each AFC nation will determine the winner.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All four platforms (Kalshi, Limitless, Polymarket, Predict) employ identical resolution methodology with consistent tiebreaker hierarchy and cancellation provisions.Primary resolution logic: Official FIFA information; credible reporting consensus acceptable as secondary sourceCore resolution logic:
- Identify the AFC nation that advances to the latest stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup
- If multiple AFC nations reach the same stage, apply tiebreaker 1: nation with most total wins in main tournament rounds
- If tie persists, apply tiebreaker 2: nation with most total goals scored in main tournament rounds
- If tie persists, apply tiebreaker 3: nation with fewest total goals conceded in main tournament rounds
- If tie persists, apply tiebreaker 4: nation whose official name comes first alphabetically
- Exactly one AFC nation will be designated as the furthest advancing; all other nation-specific markets resolve to No
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Tournament Cancellation or Postponement: If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled or postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in this group resolve to No
- Simultaneous Elimination: If two or more AFC nations are eliminated in the same round (e.g., both lose in Round of 16), tiebreakers determine the winner in strict sequence: wins, goals for, goals against, alphabetical order
- AFC Member Scope: AFC includes all official AFC member nations; Australia and New Zealand (Oceania members of AFC) are included in resolution scope
- Data Unavailability: If official FIFA data cannot be determined within the specified timeframe, markets resolve to No
Polymarket
This market will resolve in favor of the nation in AFC that advances to the latest stage in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If there is a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the nation who recorded more total wins through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation who scores more total goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation who conceded fewer goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or it cannot be determined which nation advanced the furthest during the 2026 FIFA World Cup within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the furthest stage reached by any AFC or OFC-affiliated nation competing in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. Stages are ranked from Group Stage through winning the Final, with later stages considered further advancement. Continental classification follows FIFA World Cup qualification pathways rather than geographic borders. If a team withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified during the tournament, their furthest stage is based on the last stage they successfully completed. Reaching the Semifinals is considered the furthest stage for teams that lose in the Semifinals, regardless of third-place match results. Teams that withdraw, forfeit, or are disqualified before the tournament begins result in No resolution for that team's market. When multiple Asian/Oceanic nations advance to the same furthest stage, the Yes payout is divided equally among tied nations, rounded down to the nearest cent, with the No payout calculated as the remainder.
Predict
This market will resolve in favor of the nation in AFC that advances to the latest stage in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If there is a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the nation who recorded more total wins through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation who scores more total goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation who conceded fewer goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or it cannot be determined if the listed player scored a goal during the 2026 FIFA World Cup within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Limitless
This market will resolve in favor of the nation in AFC that advances to the latest stage in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If there is a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the nation who recorded more total wins through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation who scores more total goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation who conceded fewer goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or it cannot be determined if the listed player scored a goal during the 2026 FIFA World Cup within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate independently from traditional sportsbooks, often reflecting different participant bases and incentive structures. While sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin, prediction markets aggregate beliefs through continuous trading, sometimes revealing sharper or earlier signals about tournament outcomes. For the 2026 World Cup's furthest advancing Asian nation, prediction market prices may diverge from sportsbook lines due to differences in liquidity, trader sophistication, and risk appetite. Comparing the two can highlight arbitrage opportunities or consensus shifts. However, prediction markets excel at capturing real-time sentiment changes as squad news, injuries, and qualifying results emerge closer to the tournament.