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World Cup: France Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket
predict

World Cup: France Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$1,199,172

Semifinals

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 14, 2026

Closed: Jul 14, 5:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Semifinals

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$212,006
N/A
N/A
$120,854
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Semifinals

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$62,326
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Semifinals

View
99%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$849
$4,892
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Quarterfinals

View
93%
Yes 93¢No 7¢
—
N/A
$8,246
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$94,445
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$57,405
N/A
N/A
$35,813
Settled
No
predict

Final

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$75
$8,448
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$47,667
N/A
N/A
$40,370
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$40,766
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Champion

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$150
$1,959
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$381,389
N/A
N/A
$264,170
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75,038
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$54,378
N/A
N/A
$33,216
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47,706
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Round of 16

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$1,727
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$48,165
N/A
N/A
$30,119
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$33,300
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Round of 32

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$1,045
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15,387
N/A
N/A
$14,585
Settled
No
polymarket

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,776
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Group Stage

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$102
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 22

Intro

This market tracks the stage at which France exits the 2026 FIFA World Cup tournament, spanning from group play through the final. Across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict, the aggregated consensus shows 100.0% probability that France will be eliminated in the Semifinals. Resolution will be determined by official FIFA records. Watch for France's progression through the tournament bracket, with the market resolving based on outcomes through the Semifinals stage concluding on or around July 19, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution rules contain a logical contradiction: they require the market to resolve Yes for both 'France wins the Final' and 'France is eliminated in the Final,' which are mutually exclusive outcomes. This makes the market fundamentally unresolvable under Kalshi's stated logic. Polymarket and Predict use consistent categorical resolution where France reaches exactly one stage.Hero tip: Do not trade the Kalshi version of this market. The ruleset is self-contradictory and creates settlement ambiguity. Use Polymarket or Predict instead, which employ sound categorical logic: France resolves to one and only one terminal stage (Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final, or Champion).

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Kalshi's ruleset resolves to Yes for seven separate conditions, including both 'France wins the Final' and 'France is eliminated in the Final.' This creates a logical impossibility where a single outcome cannot satisfy both conditions. Key Quote: Rules 5 and 7 state 'If France wins the Final...resolves to Yes' and 'If France is eliminated in the Final...resolves to Yes,' which are mutually exclusive.
  • Polymarket & Predict: Both platforms use a categorical resolution model where France resolves to exactly one stage outcome. The market resolves to the furthest stage France reaches: Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final, or Champion. These are mutually exclusive and exhaustive. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which France is eliminated. If France wins the tournament, this market will resolve to Champion.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which France is eliminated. If France wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If France is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by France based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

France's stage of elimination is determined by the furthest round reached before losing or being removed from competition. If France fails to advance past the group stage, the Group Stage market resolves to Yes. If France advances but loses in the Round of 32, that market resolves to Yes. Progression continues through Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and Final stages. A loss in the Semifinals results in Yes for the Semifinals market regardless of third-place match outcome. If France withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified at any point, their elimination stage is determined by the farthest stage previously reached; for example, withdrawal after a Round of 32 victory means the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes. If France wins the Final, the Outright Winner market resolves to Yes.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which France is eliminated. If France wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If France is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by France based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Kalshi for the same underlying question: at which stage France will be eliminated from the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. By tracking both platforms simultaneously, you gain a consensus view of market probability and can compare liquidity and volume across venues. The dashboard displays current implied chances, 24-hour price movement, and total group trading volume to help you understand where the prediction market crowd stands on France's tournament longevity.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed odds set by a sportsbook. This means odds reflect live supply and demand from traders worldwide, updating continuously without a house margin. Sportsbooks, by contrast, set fixed lines and adjust them to manage liability. Prediction market odds often incorporate sharper information and real-time sentiment shifts, making them useful as a benchmark against traditional sportsbook lines. Direct comparison requires checking both simultaneously during the same time window.

Key catalysts include France squad roster announcements, injury updates to star players, qualifying match results, and pre-tournament friendlies that signal team form. Coaching changes or tactical shifts can reshape market expectations. As the tournament begins, group stage results will be the primary driver: wins boost France's perceived depth and advance them further, while losses increase elimination risk. Head-to-head matchups against strong opponents, weather conditions, and real-time injury reports during the tournament will create sharp repricing. Media narratives and betting syndicates can also influence trader sentiment.