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402,751

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World Cup: Erling Haaland Goals
limitless
polymarket
kalshi

World Cup: Erling Haaland Goals

Volume:
$304,261

6+

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 12, 2026

Closed: Aug 2, 11:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

6+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$14,243
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6+ goals

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,942
N/A
N/A
$7,582
Settled
Yes
polymarket

5+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,312
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5+ goals

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,370
N/A
N/A
$1,929
Settled
Yes
polymarket

3+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,556
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

3+ goals

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$406
N/A
N/A
$406
Settled
Yes
polymarket

4+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,358
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
limitless

Erling Haaland to score 4 or more goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$50
$1,591
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4+ goals

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,084
N/A
N/A
$1,043
Settled
Yes
polymarket

7+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,653
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7+ goals

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,417
N/A
N/A
$1,956
Settled
Yes
polymarket

2+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,865
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

2+ goals

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$575
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

9+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$57,373
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

9+ goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$45,161
N/A
N/A
$35,960
Settled
No
kalshi

8+ goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$44,118
N/A
N/A
$30,694
Settled
No
polymarket

10+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$35,912
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

8+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$34,383
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

10+ goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,207
N/A
N/A
$11,485
Settled
No
polymarket

11+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,889
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

12+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,848
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 22

Description

This event group tracks whether Erling Haaland will score a specified minimum number of goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup tournament. Multiple platforms offer markets at different goal thresholds (1+, 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+, 6+, 7+, 8+, 9+, 10+), all measuring the same underlying outcome: Haaland's final goal tally in the main tournament.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Three platforms diverge on timeout windows (July 31 vs August 2, 2026) and unresolvability defaults (NO vs 50-50 vs undefined). Kalshi provides no explicit cancellation or data-unavailability clause, creating potential resolution ambiguity.Hero tip: Polymarket's 50-50 default protects traders if FIFA delays official scoresheets past August 2, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Limitless auto-resolves to NO under the same scenario. Kalshi's silence suggests reliance on platform discretion. If you expect data delays, Polymarket offers the most favorable terms. Cross-platform arbitrage risk exists if one platform resolves NO while another goes 50-50.

Critical divergence points:

  • Limitless: Resolves to NO if 2026 FIFA World Cup cancelled, postponed after July 31, 2026 23:59 UTC, or official final goal totals unavailable by that deadline. Primary source: FIFA.com or credible consensus. Key Quote: 'If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC, or official final goal totals for Erling Haaland are not available within that timeframe, this market will resolve to NO.'
  • Polymarket: Resolves to 50-50 if tournament cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or goal totals cannot be determined by that date. Also resolves to NO if Haaland does not play for any reason. Primary source: FIFA.com or credible consensus. Key Quote: 'If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many goals Erling Haaland scored within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.'
  • Kalshi: No explicit cancellation, postponement, or data-unavailability clause provided in source data. Resolves YES if Haaland meets or exceeds the specified goal threshold during regulation, stoppage, and extra time. Penalty shootout goals excluded. Implies reliance on platform discretion for edge cases.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of goals Erling Haaland scores during the 2026 FIFA World Cup equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only goals scored during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time count. Only goals credited on FIFA's official scoresheet will count. Penalty shootout goals do not count. Own goals do not count toward the final total. If Erling Haaland does not play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup for any reason, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many goals Erling Haaland scored within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Goal totals are accumulated across the entire 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup tournament, including all regulation time, stoppage time, and extra time periods. Goals scored during penalty shootouts are excluded from the count. Goals scored in the third-place match are included in the total. Each market resolves to Yes if Haaland achieves or exceeds the specified goal threshold by the tournament's conclusion.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "YES" if Erling Haaland scores 4 or more goals across all matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup main tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "NO." Goals scored in penalty shootouts do not count toward this market. This market will resolve as soon as Erling Haaland has completed his participation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup and official final goal totals are available. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC, or official final goal totals for Erling Haaland are not available within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "NO." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on peer-to-peer pricing rather than sportsbook margins. Traders directly set odds by buying and selling shares, which means prices reflect aggregate belief without built-in vig. Sportsbooks, by contrast, embed profit margins and adjust lines based on liability management. Prediction market odds often converge toward true probability faster than traditional betting lines because traders have direct financial incentive to correct mispricings. For major events like the World Cup, both venues typically align closely, though prediction markets may react more quickly to breaking news or injury reports affecting player availability.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Contract specifications vary between the two platforms: Limitless frames the outcome as four or more goals, while Polymarket uses a two-goal threshold. This structural difference alone explains much of the pricing gap. Beyond contract design, each platform attracts distinct trader bases with different risk tolerances and information sets. Liquidity depth also differs—one venue may have concentrated volume in a particular outcome, causing temporary price distortions. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, though transaction costs and withdrawal delays can prevent full convergence. Monitoring both prices helps traders identify which platform offers better value for their thesis.

Major catalysts include Haaland's form and injury status during the 2025–26 club season, which directly affects his fitness heading into the World Cup. International tournament performance, squad rotation decisions by Norway's coaching staff, and changes to the team's tactical setup will all influence goal-scoring opportunity. Transfer news—particularly moves to a more or less prolific league—can shift expectations around his goal-per-game rate. Betting market activity on related props, such as Norway's tournament progression or total squad goals, often precedes price moves here. Media narratives around his World Cup ambitions and any public statements from Haaland himself can also trigger trader repositioning.