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404,028

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World Cup: England Stage of Elimination
polymarket
predict
kalshi

World Cup: England Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$1,201,643

Semifinals

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 15, 2026

Closed: Jul 15, 5:11 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Semifinals

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$203,083
N/A
N/A
$121,022
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Semifinals

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$77,176
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Semifinals

View
99%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$5,985
$1,196
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Quarterfinals

View
2%
Yes 2¢No 98¢
—
N/A
$198
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$114,392
N/A
N/A
$73,481
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$49,759
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Final

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$159
$831
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$106,407
N/A
N/A
$78,440
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$99,573
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Champion

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$136
$447
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$92,411
N/A
N/A
$69,747
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$52,033
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$199,716
N/A
N/A
$148,758
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$116,617
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Round of 16

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$571
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$42,177
N/A
N/A
$23,245
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,409
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Round of 32

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$907
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,832
N/A
N/A
$11,506
Settled
No
polymarket

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,760
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Group Stage

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$147
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 22

Intro

This market tracks the specific stage at which England will be eliminated from the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup, or whether England wins the tournament outright. Across Polymarket, Predict, and Kalshi, the aggregated consensus shows 100.0% probability that England will be eliminated in the Semifinals. Resolution is determined by FIFA's official tournament records. Watch for England's progression through the group stage and knockout rounds leading up to the tournament conclusion on July 19, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi employs a binary Yes/No resolution structure that treats all elimination stages and championship as equivalent Yes outcomes, creating logical contradiction with the mutually exclusive categorical framework used by Polymarket and Predict. This makes cross-platform arbitrage and position reconciliation impossible.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is unresolvable as stated because multiple conditions cannot simultaneously be true (England cannot both lose in Group Stage and win the Final). Treat Kalshi as a proxy for 'Does England participate beyond group stage or win?' On Polymarket/Predict, trade the specific stage outcome you believe will occur; these are mutually exclusive and logically sound.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary Yes/No structure where all seven conditions (Group Stage elimination, Round of 32 elimination, Round of 16 elimination, Quarterfinals elimination, Semifinals elimination, Final elimination, and Championship win) all resolve to Yes. Quote: 'If England is eliminated in the Group Stage... then the market resolves to Yes' through 'If England wins the Final... then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility: only one of these outcomes can occur, yet all are marked as Yes.
  • Polymarket: Categorical outcome structure with mutually exclusive resolution paths: Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final, Champion, or Other. Quote: 'This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which England is eliminated. If England wins the tournament, this market will resolve to Champion.' Only one outcome resolves to Yes; all others resolve No.
  • Predict: Categorical outcome structure identical to Polymarket, with separate markets for each stage (Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final, Champion). Quote: 'This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which England is eliminated. If England wins the tournament, this market will resolve to Champion.' Mutually exclusive outcomes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which England is eliminated. If England wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If England is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by England based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

England's stage of elimination is determined by the farthest point at which the team fails to advance in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup tournament structure. The tournament progresses through Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and Final. If England loses a match at any stage, the corresponding market for that stage resolves to Yes. In the event of withdrawal, forfeiture, or disqualification, the team's elimination stage is determined by the farthest stage reached prior to such action—for example, if England withdraws after winning a Round of 32 match, the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes as that would be the next stage where elimination would have occurred. A loss in the Semifinals results in Yes resolution for the Semifinals market regardless of third-place match outcome. The Outright Winner market resolves to Yes only if England wins the Final.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which England is eliminated. If England wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If England is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by England based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity for England's elimination stage across Polymarket and Kalshi, two leading decentralized prediction markets. It tracks which round England will exit the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup—whether group stage, Round of 16, quarterfinals, or deeper. By monitoring both platforms simultaneously, you see consensus probability shifts, spot divergences between venues, and access total liquidity across $1,201,643 in combined group volume. This multi-platform view reveals how professional traders and casual predictors price England's tournament longevity in real time.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi often reflect sharper, crowd-sourced probabilities than traditional sportsbooks because traders risk real capital and face no house edge. Sportsbooks build in margins and cater to casual bettors; prediction markets reward accurate forecasting. For England's World Cup elimination stage, market odds may diverge from sportsbook lines based on recent team news, injury updates, or shifts in international sentiment. Comparing both reveals whether consensus leans bullish or bearish on England's depth and tournament survival odds relative to bookmaker pricing.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Kalshi serve different user bases, operate under distinct regulatory frameworks, and may list slightly different outcome definitions—for example, one platform may isolate group-stage elimination while another bundles Round of 16 exits. Liquidity concentration, timing of major news, and platform-specific trading incentives also create temporary spreads. Additionally, each platform's fee structure and user demographics influence how quickly prices adjust to new information about England's squad fitness, draw position, or opponent strength. Monitoring both venues helps you identify arbitrage opportunities and understand which market is pricing England's chances more conservatively.