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World Cup: Ecuador Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: Ecuador Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$180,470

Round of 32

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 12:19 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Round of 32

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$30,822
N/A
N/A
$17,674
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Round of 32

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,073
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$51,679
N/A
N/A
$31,557
Settled
No
polymarket

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,381
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,159
N/A
N/A
$8,910
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,909
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,153
N/A
N/A
$10,520
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,166
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,745
N/A
N/A
$6,745
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,347
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,271
N/A
N/A
$4,142
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,710
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,070
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,985
N/A
N/A
$1,985
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks Ecuador's elimination stage in the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup. Markets across platforms resolve based on the furthest round Ecuador reaches before elimination, or to 'Champion' if Ecuador wins the tournament. The resolution depends on official FIFA tournament outcomes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses a binary Yes/No framework that conflates all elimination stages and championship into a single Yes outcome, while Polymarket uses a categorical multi-outcome structure with explicit resolution states (Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final, Champion, Other). The platforms differ in scope and logical coherence.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is semantically problematic: it resolves to Yes whether Ecuador is eliminated in group stage OR wins the tournament. Polymarket's categorical approach is clearer and more granular. If you need to distinguish between Ecuador reaching the final and winning, use Polymarket. If you only care about 'any outcome other than group stage exit', Kalshi may serve, but verify the exact Yes condition with the platform before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary market resolving to Yes for all seven scenarios: Group Stage elimination, Round of 32 elimination, Round of 16 elimination, Quarterfinals elimination, Semifinals elimination, Final elimination, and championship victory. Quote: 'If Ecuador wins the Final in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.' This treats championship as an elimination outcome.
  • Polymarket: Categorical market with explicit resolution states: Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final, Champion, and Other. Includes contingency for tournament disruption: 'If Ecuador is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Ecuador.' Also specifies: 'If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to Other.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Ecuador is eliminated. If Ecuador wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Ecuador is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Ecuador based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Ecuador's stage of elimination is determined by the farthest point at which the team fails to advance in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup tournament structure. The tournament progresses through Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and Final. If Ecuador loses a match at any stage, the corresponding market for that stage resolves to Yes. In the event of withdrawal, forfeiture, or disqualification, the team's elimination stage is determined by the farthest stage reached prior to such action—for example, if Ecuador withdraws after winning a Round of 32 match, the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes as that would be the next stage where elimination would have occurred. A loss in the Semifinals results in Yes resolution for the Semifinals market regardless of third-place match outcome. The Outright Winner market resolves to Yes only if Ecuador wins the Final.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time prediction market odds for Ecuador's elimination stage at the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup across Polymarket and Kalshi. It tracks consensus probability estimates for when Ecuador will exit the tournament, ranging from group stage through knockout rounds. The dashboard displays current odds, 24-hour volume trends, and cross-platform price discovery, allowing traders and analysts to monitor how market participants are pricing Ecuador's tournament longevity. By comparing outcomes across multiple venues, you gain insight into where smart money is positioning and how conviction levels shift as the tournament approaches.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi often reflect different risk profiles and liquidity than traditional sportsbooks. Prediction market participants trade directly with each other, creating prices driven by collective belief rather than bookmaker margins. For Ecuador's elimination stage, prediction market odds may diverge from sportsbook spreads due to differences in trader sophistication, real-time information flow, and absence of vig. Sportsbooks typically adjust lines to manage liability, while prediction markets respond more fluidly to breaking news, team injuries, and betting flow. Comparing both sources helps identify value and consensus strength around Ecuador's World Cup exit point.

Key catalysts include Ecuador's qualifying performance, roster announcements, and injury updates to star players. Pre-tournament friendlies and training camp reports shape expectations around team form and tactical readiness. Draw results for group stage assignments significantly impact elimination odds—a harder group raises early-exit probability. During the tournament, Ecuador's actual match results, goal differential, and head-to-head outcomes directly influence knockout advancement chances. Managerial changes, disciplinary suspensions, and late-breaking injuries can shift market sentiment rapidly. Betting flow and sharp money positioning also move odds as the tournament nears and unfolds. Monitor official FIFA communications and team news for real-time market-moving developments.