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400,720

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2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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World Cup: Curaçao Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: Curaçao Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$39,781

Group Stage

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 26, 2026

Closed: Jul 19, 3:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Group Stage

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,873
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Group Stage

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,422
N/A
N/A
$6,717
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,912
N/A
N/A
$3,229
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,216
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,069
N/A
N/A
$3,019
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,576
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,191
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$267
N/A
N/A
$265
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,526
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$363
N/A
N/A
$310
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,415
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$463
N/A
N/A
$413
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,338
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$150
N/A
N/A
$150
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks whether Curaçao will be eliminated at any stage of the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup, or win the tournament. Markets across platforms assess Curaçao's tournament outcome by stage of elimination (Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final) or championship victory.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms uniformly resolve based on Curaçao's elimination stage or tournament victory in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with identical outcome mapping across all stages.Primary resolution logic: Official FIFA sources (fifa.com); credible reporting consensus if official sources unavailable

Core resolution logic:

  • If Curaçao is eliminated in Group Stage, market resolves to Yes/affirmative
  • If Curaçao is eliminated in Round of 32, market resolves to Yes/affirmative
  • If Curaçao is eliminated in Round of 16, market resolves to Yes/affirmative
  • If Curaçao is eliminated in Quarterfinals, market resolves to Yes/affirmative
  • If Curaçao is eliminated in Semifinals, market resolves to Yes/affirmative
  • If Curaçao is eliminated in Final, market resolves to Yes/affirmative
  • If Curaçao wins the Final and becomes World Cup Champion, market resolves to Yes/Champion/affirmative

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tournament Cancellation or Postponement: Polymarket explicitly resolves to 'Other' if tournament is cancelled in full or postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Kalshi does not address this scenario; assume resolution based on furthest completed round per Polymarket's fallback logic.
  • Disqualification or Withdrawal: If Curaçao is disqualified, withdraws, or is removed from tournament, resolution follows the furthest completed round reached by Curaçao based on best available official information (Polymarket explicit; Kalshi implicit).
  • Incomplete Tournament: If tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, resolution is based on the furthest completed round reached by Curaçao per Polymarket guidance.
Timing: Resolution occurs upon completion of the stage at which Curaçao is eliminated or upon tournament conclusion if Curaçao wins. Final resolution deadline is August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; tournaments postponed beyond this date resolve to 'Other' on Polymarket.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Curaçao is eliminated. If Curaçao wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Curaçao is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Curaçao based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Curaçao's stage of elimination is determined by the farthest point at which the team fails to advance in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup tournament structure. The tournament progresses through Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and Final. If Curaçao loses a match at any stage, the corresponding market for that stage resolves to Yes. In the event of withdrawal, forfeiture, or disqualification, the team's elimination stage is determined by the farthest stage reached prior to such action—for example, if Curaçao withdraws after winning a Round of 32 match, the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes as that would be the next stage where elimination would have occurred. A loss in the Semifinals results in Yes resolution for the Semifinals market regardless of third-place match outcome. The Outright Winner market resolves to Yes only if Curaçao wins the Final.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Kalshi for the same underlying question: at which stage Curaçao will be eliminated from the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup. The tracker displays current implied probabilities, historical price movements, and cumulative trading volume across both platforms, allowing you to monitor consensus sentiment and spot divergences. By comparing outcomes side-by-side, you gain insight into how different market structures and trader bases price Curaçao's tournament longevity.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi typically reflect real-time crowd sentiment and are updated continuously by active traders, whereas traditional sportsbooks adjust odds less frequently and include built-in margins. Prediction market prices often converge toward consensus probability as resolution approaches, while sportsbook odds may lag or diverge due to risk management and liability concerns. For Curaçao's elimination stage, comparing prediction market implied probabilities to sportsbook lines can reveal whether one market is pricing in information the other has not yet fully incorporated.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different regulatory frameworks, liquidity pools, and user demographics, which can produce price gaps even for the same event. Polymarket may attract traders focused on group-stage elimination, while Kalshi may draw interest in later-stage outcomes. Differences in order-book depth, trading fees, and market-maker participation also influence how quickly each platform reprices in response to team news, injuries, or World Cup developments. These structural factors mean identical questions can trade at materially different implied probabilities across venues.

Key catalysts include Curaçao's group-stage draw announcement, squad roster announcements, and pre-tournament friendlies that signal team strength. During the tournament, match results, player injuries, and head-to-head outcomes against group opponents will directly influence elimination odds. Unexpected victories or defeats can dramatically shift market prices, as can late-breaking news about star players or tactical changes. Media coverage, expert predictions, and betting action on related markets may also move prices as traders reassess Curaçao's path through the tournament.