TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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World Cup: Cape Verde Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: Cape Verde Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$507,840

Round of 32

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 4, 2026

Closed: Jul 19, 3:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Round of 32

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$109,655
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Round of 32

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$48,376
N/A
N/A
$28,524
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$125,709
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,670
N/A
N/A
$3,496
Settled
No
kalshi

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$44,153
N/A
N/A
$33,141
Settled
No
polymarket

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,673
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$37,224
N/A
N/A
$18,560
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,830
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29,162
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,578
N/A
N/A
$10,295
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$28,735
N/A
N/A
$27,062
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,770
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,527
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,779
N/A
N/A
$6,458
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks the stage at which Cape Verde is eliminated from the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup, or whether they win the tournament. Markets across platforms are asking the same fundamental question: at what point in the tournament will Cape Verde's participation end?

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Market structure divergence: Kalshi uses a binary Yes/No framework covering all elimination stages plus championship, while Polymarket uses a categorical outcome framework with explicit contingency clauses for disqualification, withdrawal, and tournament cancellation. Kalshi lacks explicit edge case handling.Hero tip: Understand your platform's market type before trading. On Kalshi, you are betting binary on whether Cape Verde reaches any stage or wins. On Polymarket, you are predicting the exact stage. Both resolve consistently if Cape Verde completes the tournament normally, but diverge sharply if the tournament is disrupted, cancelled, or Cape Verde withdraws—Polymarket has explicit rules (resolves Other), Kalshi does not.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary Yes/No market. Resolves Yes if Cape Verde is eliminated in Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final, or wins the Final. No explicit contingency rules for disqualification, withdrawal, or tournament cancellation. Quote: 'If Cape Verde wins the Final in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Categorical market with explicit outcomes and contingency clauses. Resolves to specific stage (Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final), Champion, or Other. Includes detailed handling: 'If Cape Verde is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Cape Verde based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to Other.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Cape Verde is eliminated. If Cape Verde wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Cape Verde is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Cape Verde based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

These markets track Cape Verde's elimination stage throughout the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. A team is considered eliminated at the stage where it loses a match. If a team withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified at any point, its elimination stage is determined by the farthest stage reached prior to such action—for example, if a team withdraws after winning a Round of 32 match, the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes since that would have been the next stage of competition. A team losing in the Semifinals resolves the Semifinals market to Yes regardless of third-place match results. The Outright Winner market resolves to Yes only if Cape Verde wins the Final.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across prediction markets tracking whether Cape Verde will be eliminated in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. It displays consensus probabilities from Polymarket and Kalshi, along with cumulative trading volume and 24-hour momentum. By monitoring multiple venues simultaneously, the dashboard reveals how professional traders and casual predictors assess Cape Verde's chances of advancing past the group phase, offering a cross-platform view of market conviction and liquidity.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi typically reflect real-time trader sentiment and often diverge from traditional sportsbook odds due to different participant bases, liquidity constraints, and settlement timelines. Sportsbooks adjust lines to manage liability and attract balanced action, while prediction markets aggregate distributed beliefs. For Cape Verde's group-stage elimination odds, comparing prediction market consensus to major sportsbook lines can reveal whether professional bettors or retail traders hold stronger conviction about the outcome.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Even when tracking the same event, prediction markets may show different odds due to variations in user base composition, order flow timing, and liquidity depth. Polymarket may attract different trader demographics or experience different peak trading windows than other venues. Regulatory constraints, fee structures, and market-making strategies also influence price discovery. Monitoring these spreads helps identify arbitrage opportunities and reveals which platform's participants hold the strongest conviction about Cape Verde's elimination probability.

Key catalysts include Cape Verde's qualifying performance, roster announcements, and injury updates to star players. Pre-tournament friendlies and training-camp reports will influence trader expectations. Group-stage draw composition—particularly the strength of opponents—directly impacts elimination odds. During the tournament, each group-stage match result will trigger sharp repricing. Betting syndicates and professional traders often move markets on breaking news about team form, tactical changes, or unexpected player availability before and during the competition.