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405,232

Markets across

30,526

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

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61%

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World Cup: Canada Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: Canada Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$264,910

Round of 16

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 4, 2026

Closed: Jul 4, 3:39 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Round of 16

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$78,419
N/A
N/A
$46,806
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Round of 16

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$54,616
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$32,809
N/A
N/A
$18,624
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,976
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,307
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,228
N/A
N/A
$5,796
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,575
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,609
N/A
N/A
$7,507
Settled
No
kalshi

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,574
N/A
N/A
$6,480
Settled
No
polymarket

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,323
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,473
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,018
N/A
N/A
$2,865
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,651
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,330
N/A
N/A
$1,180
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks the stage at which Canada is eliminated from the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup, or whether Canada wins the tournament. Markets across platforms assess Canada's progression through Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final, or Championship victory.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's binary Yes-resolution framework conflates all elimination stages with championship victory, creating logical contradiction and non-falsifiability. Polymarket uses mutually exclusive categorical outcomes, which is structurally sound but incompatible with Kalshi's model.Hero tip: Avoid Kalshi markets in this group due to logical incoherence. Polymarket's categorical resolution (Group Stage / Round of 32 / Round of 16 / Quarterfinals / Semifinals / Final / Champion / Other) is the only resolvable framework. If trading Kalshi, demand clarification on whether championship victory should resolve to Yes or No.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Seven binary conditions all resolve to Yes: elimination at Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final, OR championship victory. This creates a logical contradiction where both Canada's loss and Canada's victory trigger the same Yes outcome, making the market non-falsifiable and unresolvable.
  • Polymarket: Categorical resolution to exactly one outcome: Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final, Champion, or Other. Resolution source is official FIFA information or credible reporting consensus. Disqualification, withdrawal, or tournament cancellation after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET resolves to Other.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Canada is eliminated. If Canada wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Canada is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Canada based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

These markets track Canada's elimination stage throughout the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. A team is considered eliminated at the stage where it loses a match. If a team withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified at any point, its elimination stage is determined by the farthest stage reached prior to such action—for example, if a team withdraws after winning a Round of 32 match, the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes since that would have been the next stage of competition. A team losing in the Semifinals resolves the Semifinals market to Yes regardless of third-place match results. The Outright Winner market resolves to Yes only if Canada wins the Final.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Kalshi for the same underlying question: at which stage Canada will be eliminated from the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. By tracking both platforms simultaneously, you gain a consensus view of market probability and can compare liquidity and price discovery across venues. The dashboard displays current implied odds, 24-hour volume trends, and outcome-specific contract prices, helping traders identify arbitrage opportunities and monitor how professional and retail participants are positioning on Canada's tournament longevity.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate independently from traditional sportsbooks and often reflect different risk models, participant bases, and fee structures. While sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin, prediction markets aggregate decentralized trader beliefs with minimal intermediation. For Canada's World Cup elimination stage, prediction market odds may diverge from sportsbook lines due to differences in liquidity depth, regulatory constraints, and the time horizons favored by each venue's user base. Direct comparison requires checking both simultaneously, as prediction markets can move faster on new information.

Key catalysts include Canada's qualifying performance and final seeding for the 2026 tournament, roster announcements and injury updates to star players, pre-tournament friendlies and form trends, and group-stage draw results. Once the tournament begins, each match outcome—wins, draws, or losses—will directly impact Canada's elimination probability. Coaching changes, tactical shifts, and performance against group opponents will drive intraday volatility. Broader geopolitical or weather events affecting tournament logistics could also influence market sentiment. Traders should monitor official FIFA communications and Canadian national team news for real-time signals.