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5

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World Cup: Brazil Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: Brazil Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$424,367

Round of 16

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 6, 2026

Closed: Jul 19, 3:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Round of 16

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$51,580
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Round of 16

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$47,558
N/A
N/A
$21,281
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$75,505
N/A
N/A
$29,022
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$33,653
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$48,598
N/A
N/A
$42,165
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,567
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$33,615
N/A
N/A
$22,886
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,194
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$28,169
N/A
N/A
$15,826
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,889
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,204
N/A
N/A
$14,937
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,013
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15,354
N/A
N/A
$13,972
Settled
No
polymarket

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,468
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks at which stage Brazil will be eliminated in the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup, or whether they will win the tournament. Both platforms offer markets covering all possible elimination stages (Group Stage through Final) plus a champion outcome, with resolution tied to official FIFA tournament results.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market structure conflates championship with elimination by resolving to Yes for both outcomes, creating a logically contradictory market. Polymarket uses mutually exclusive categorical resolution with explicit edge case definitions, making it resolvable but incompatible with Kalshi's approach.Hero tip: Avoid cross-platform arbitrage between Kalshi and Polymarket on this event group. Kalshi's market is fundamentally ambiguous and may face settlement disputes. If trading Kalshi, request clarification on whether Yes means 'Brazil does not win' or 'Brazil reaches Final stage or beyond'. Polymarket's individual categorical markets are more reliable but require careful selection of the specific stage market.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Single binary market resolves Yes for elimination at any stage (Group through Final) AND for championship. Statements 1-7 all trigger Yes resolution, making it impossible to distinguish between 'Brazil loses' and 'Brazil wins'. No explicit edge case handling provided. Key quote: 'If Brazil wins the Final in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Multiple mutually exclusive categorical markets covering each stage plus Champion outcome. Explicit handling of disqualification (resolves to furthest completed round), tournament cancellation after August 2, 2026 11:59 PM ET (resolves to Other), and incomplete tournaments (best available official information). Key quote: 'If Brazil is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Brazil.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Brazil is eliminated. If Brazil wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Brazil is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Brazil based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

These markets track Brazil's elimination stage throughout the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. A team is considered eliminated at the stage where it loses a match. If a team withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified at any point, its elimination stage is determined by the farthest stage reached prior to such action—for example, if a team withdraws after winning a Round of 32 match, the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes since that would have been the next stage of competition. A team losing in the Semifinals resolves the Semifinals market to Yes regardless of third-place match results. The Outright Winner market resolves to Yes only if Brazil wins the Final.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity for Brazil's elimination stage performance at the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup across Polymarket and Kalshi. It displays consensus probability estimates, 24-hour volume trends, and cross-platform price discovery for outcomes including Brazil's progression through knockout rounds and potential final appearance. By tracking liquidity and implied odds across multiple prediction markets simultaneously, the dashboard provides traders and analysts a unified view of how the market collectively prices Brazil's World Cup elimination prospects as the tournament unfolds.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket and Kalshi often diverge from traditional sportsbook lines due to differences in market structure, liquidity, and participant composition. Prediction markets aggregate decentralized trader beliefs in real time, while sportsbooks set odds to manage liability and profit margins. For Brazil's World Cup elimination stage, prediction market prices may reflect sharper, more granular probability estimates from specialized traders, whereas sportsbooks balance odds to attract balanced action. Comparing the two reveals whether consensus among prediction market participants differs materially from bookmaker pricing on Brazil's knockout performance.

Key catalysts include Brazil's group stage performance, injury updates to star players, coaching changes, and qualifying results of potential knockout opponents. Tournament momentum, weather conditions, and referee decisions in Brazil's matches will influence market pricing. Pre-tournament friendlies and squad announcements signal team strength and readiness. Real-time match outcomes during the elimination stage drive sharp repricing on Polymarket and Kalshi. Geopolitical factors, betting scandals, or unexpected player withdrawals could also shift probabilities. Traders monitor expert analysis, team news, and live odds movement to anticipate how Brazil's path through the knockout rounds unfolds.