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World Cup: Bosnia & Herzegovina Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: Bosnia & Herzegovina Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$116,258

Round of 32

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 10:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Round of 32

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25,561
N/A
N/A
$12,999
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Round of 32

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$25,558
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,347
N/A
N/A
$9,252
Settled
No
polymarket

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,985
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,609
N/A
N/A
$8,377
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,168
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,529
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,457
N/A
N/A
$1,390
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,115
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,667
N/A
N/A
$1,652
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,871
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$507
N/A
N/A
$507
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,062
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$821
N/A
N/A
$820
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks the stage at which Bosnia & Herzegovina is eliminated from the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup, or whether they win the tournament. Markets across platforms ask about elimination at specific stages (Group Stage, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final) or championship victory.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Market structure incompatibility: Kalshi uses a single binary YES/NO covering all elimination stages and championship, while Polymarket uses mutually-exclusive outcome markets for each stage plus championship. The logical scope is identical but the settlement mechanism and market design differ fundamentally.Hero tip: Do not treat Kalshi YES as equivalent to any single Polymarket market outcome. Kalshi YES = (Polymarket Group Stage OR Round of 16 OR Quarterfinals OR Semifinals OR Final OR Champion). Polymarket markets are mutually exclusive; exactly one will resolve affirmatively. Kalshi is a single binary that resolves YES unless Bosnia & Herzegovina finishes as runner-up (loses the Final without winning).

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Single binary market: resolves YES if Bosnia & Herzegovina is eliminated at Group Stage, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final, OR wins the Final. Resolves NO only if Bosnia & Herzegovina finishes as runner-up (loses the Final). Key Quote: 'If Bosnia and Herzegovina wins the Final in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Multiple mutually-exclusive outcome markets covering Group Stage elimination, Round of 16 elimination, Quarterfinals elimination, Semifinals elimination, Final elimination, Championship victory, and Other (cancellation/disqualification). Exactly one outcome occurs and resolves affirmatively. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Bosnia & Herzegovina is eliminated... If Bosnia & Herzegovina wins the tournament, this market will resolve to Champion.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Bosnia & Herzegovina is eliminated. If Bosnia & Herzegovina wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Bosnia & Herzegovina is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Bosnia & Herzegovina based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

These markets track Bosnia and Herzegovina's elimination stage throughout the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. A team is considered eliminated at the stage where it loses a match. If a team withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified at any point, its elimination stage is determined by the farthest stage reached prior to such action—for example, if a team withdraws after winning a Round of 32 match, the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes since that would have been the next stage of competition. A team losing in the Semifinals resolves the Semifinals market to Yes regardless of third-place match results. The Outright Winner market resolves to Yes only if Bosnia and Herzegovina wins the Final.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market odds across Polymarket and Kalshi to track which stage Bosnia and Herzegovina will be eliminated from the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. It displays real-time consensus pricing, historical odds movements, and trading volume across platforms. The event captures all possible elimination outcomes—group stage, knockout rounds, or advancement to later stages—allowing traders and analysts to compare how different markets price Bosnia's tournament longevity. Cross-platform tracking reveals where smart money is concentrated and identifies arbitrage opportunities between venues.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi often reflect sharper, more granular odds than traditional sportsbooks because they allow peer-to-peer trading and continuous price discovery. Sportsbooks typically offer fixed odds on broad outcomes, while prediction markets segment Bosnia's elimination into specific stages. Market odds tend to adjust faster to breaking news, team roster changes, and injury reports. However, sportsbook odds may incorporate different risk models and margin structures. Comparing the two reveals whether consensus leans bullish or bearish on Bosnia's World Cup prospects relative to professional oddsmakers.

Polymarket and Kalshi may price Bosnia's elimination stage differently due to distinct user bases, liquidity pools, and market microstructure. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket specializes in regulated U.S. markets and may attract different trader demographics than Kalshi, which draws global crypto-native participants. Liquidity concentration varies by platform; thinner order books can widen spreads and allow larger trades to move prices. Settlement rule interpretation, platform fees, and withdrawal friction also influence how quickly prices converge. Monitoring these divergences helps identify mispricings and arbitrage windows before the tournament begins.

Key catalysts include Bosnia's qualifying performance and final seeding for the 2026 World Cup, which affects group assignment and elimination probability. Roster announcements, coaching changes, and injury updates to star players shift perceived tournament strength. Friendly match results and regional tournament performances provide form signals. Draw ceremony outcomes determine Bosnia's group opponents and knockout path. Pre-tournament betting patterns and consensus shifts among professional syndicates can accelerate price moves. Media narratives around Bosnia's chances and comparative strength assessments versus group rivals will continuously reprrice the market through the lead-up to kickoff.