TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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World Cup: Belgium Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: Belgium Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$804,928

Quarterfinals

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 10, 2026

Closed: Jul 19, 3:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$247,676
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$96,286
N/A
N/A
$55,990
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$226,653
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23,761
N/A
N/A
$22,612
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$41,043
N/A
N/A
$22,245
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31,205
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,535
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,166
N/A
N/A
$8,160
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,526
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,344
N/A
N/A
$15,456
Settled
No
kalshi

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$22,409
N/A
N/A
$9,348
Settled
No
polymarket

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,294
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,871
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,159
N/A
N/A
$10,522
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks Belgium's progression through the 2026 FIFA World Cup, resolving based on the stage at which Belgium is eliminated or wins the tournament. Markets across platforms assess whether Belgium reaches specific elimination stages (Group, Round of 16, Round of 32, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final) or wins the championship.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi presents a single categorical market covering all elimination stages and championship, while Polymarket offers multiple independent binary markets for each stage. The resolution frameworks are structurally incompatible despite covering the same underlying event.Hero tip: Do not assume 1:1 parity between platforms. Kalshi resolves to one outcome; Polymarket resolves each stage market independently. If trading both, treat them as separate position types and manage correlation risk explicitly.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Single categorical market with 7 mutually exclusive resolution rules covering all tournament outcomes: Group Stage elimination, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final elimination, or Championship win. Exactly one rule will trigger.
  • Polymarket: Ten independent binary markets: 6 stage-specific elimination markets (Group, R32, R16, QF, SF, Final), 1 championship market, and 1 'other position' market. Each resolves Yes/No independently. Includes explicit fallback logic for disqualification, withdrawal, or tournament cancellation after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Belgium is eliminated. If Belgium wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Belgium is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Belgium based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

These markets track Belgium's elimination stage throughout the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. A team is considered eliminated at the stage where it loses a match. If a team withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified at any point, its elimination stage is determined by the farthest stage reached prior to such action—for example, if a team withdraws after winning a Round of 32 match, the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes since that would have been the next stage of competition. A team losing in the Semifinals resolves the Semifinals market to Yes regardless of third-place match results. The Outright Winner market resolves to Yes only if Belgium wins the Final.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Kalshi for the same underlying question: at which stage Belgium will be eliminated from the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. By tracking both platforms simultaneously, you gain a consensus view of market sentiment and can compare liquidity, volume, and probability estimates across venues. The cross-platform lens reveals where smart money is concentrating and helps identify pricing inefficiencies or divergences that may signal shifting expectations about Belgium's tournament performance.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate independently of traditional sportsbooks and often reflect different risk models, liquidity pools, and trader demographics. While sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin, prediction markets aggregate belief through continuous trading. For Belgium's elimination stage, prediction market prices may lead or lag sportsbook lines depending on which venue attracts more informed traders, recent team news, or injury updates. Direct comparison requires converting both formats to implied probability and monitoring which market reprices first after new information.

Key catalysts include Belgium squad announcements, injuries to star players, qualifying-round results, and draw composition when groups are revealed. Pre-tournament friendlies and form trends will shift market expectations about Belgium's ability to advance past early rounds. Coaching changes, roster depth concerns, and comparative strength assessments of rival nations in Belgium's group will drive repricing. As the tournament unfolds, each group-stage result will trigger sharp moves; early exits or dominant wins will dramatically alter odds for deeper-stage elimination scenarios.