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World Cup: Australia Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: Australia Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$98,661

Round of 32

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 3, 2026

Closed: Jul 3, 5:09 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Round of 32

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$24,779
N/A
N/A
$14,180
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Round of 32

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$18,348
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,461
N/A
N/A
$13,174
Settled
No
polymarket

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,728
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,855
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,951
N/A
N/A
$2,613
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,678
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,346
N/A
N/A
$2,063
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,783
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$22
N/A
N/A
$22
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,317
N/A
N/A
$2,267
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,386
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,929
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$78
N/A
N/A
$78
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks Australia's progression and elimination stage in the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup. Markets across platforms assess whether Australia will be eliminated at specific tournament stages (Group Stage, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final) or win the championship outright.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms employ identical resolution logic: Australia's tournament outcome is determined by the stage at which they are eliminated or if they win the championship, with official FIFA sources as the authoritative reference.Primary resolution logic: Official FIFA records (fifa.com) with credible reporting consensus as secondary source

Core resolution logic:

  • Australia's final tournament outcome is determined by the earliest stage at which they are eliminated
  • Possible outcomes are mutually exclusive: Group Stage elimination, Round of 32 elimination, Round of 16 elimination, Quarterfinal elimination, Semifinal elimination, Final elimination, or Championship victory
  • If Australia wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup, all elimination markets resolve to No and the championship market resolves to Yes
  • If Australia is eliminated at any stage, that specific stage market resolves to Yes and all other stage markets resolve to No
  • Resolution uses official FIFA records as primary authority

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tournament Cancellation or Postponement: If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full or postponed after August 2, 2026 11:59 PM ET, markets resolve to 'Other' or according to the furthest completed round reached by Australia based on best available official information
  • Disqualification or Withdrawal: If Australia is disqualified, withdraws, or is removed from the tournament, resolution defaults to the furthest completed round reached by Australia
  • Incomplete Tournament: If the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, resolution is based on the furthest completed round reached by Australia
  • Source Conflict: If official FIFA information is unavailable, credible reporting consensus from major sports news outlets serves as the resolution source
Timing: Resolution occurs upon completion of the 2026 FIFA World Cup or upon determination of Australia's final tournament stage, with final resolution deadline of August 2, 2026 11:59 PM ETOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Australia is eliminated. If Australia wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Australia is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Australia based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Australia's elimination stage is determined by the farthest point they reach in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. If Australia withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified at any point, their elimination stage is based on the farthest stage they reached prior to such action. For example, if a team withdraws after winning a Round of 32 match, the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes, representing the next stage where they would have competed. A team that loses in the Semifinals resolves the Semifinals market to Yes regardless of third-place match results. The Outright Winner market resolves to Yes only if Australia wins the Final.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed odds set by a sportsbook. This means market prices reflect real-time supply and demand from thousands of traders, often incorporating breaking news and injury reports faster than traditional sportsbooks update their lines. Prediction market odds tend to be more efficient at pricing tail outcomes and niche events. For World Cup elimination stage betting, comparing prediction market consensus to major sportsbook lines can reveal arbitrage opportunities or validate whether the crowd's view aligns with professional oddsmakers.

Key catalysts include Australia's qualifying campaign performance, roster announcements, and injury updates to star players. Pre-tournament friendlies and draw analysis will shift expectations about group difficulty and knockout odds. During the tournament itself, Australia's actual group-stage results, goal differential, and head-to-head outcomes directly determine advancement. Broader World Cup developments—upsets by other teams, shifts in perceived tournament strength—can indirectly affect Australia's perceived path. Media narratives around coaching changes, tactical adjustments, and player form will also influence trader sentiment and move odds across both Polymarket and Kalshi.