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World Cup: Argentina Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket
predict

World Cup: Argentina Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$2,443,841

Runner-Up

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 20, 2026

Closed: Jul 19, 6:06 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$280,924
N/A
N/A
$125,732
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Final

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$178,198
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Final

View
99%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$13,616
$19,449
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Quarterfinals

View
29%
Yes 29¢No 71¢
—
N/A
$19,238
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$194,748
N/A
N/A
$122,477
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$65,576
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Champion

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$1,383
$25,619
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$726,844
N/A
N/A
$409,197
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$136,569
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Semifinals

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
N/A
$13,539
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$345,414
N/A
N/A
$145,036
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$94,557
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$107,651
N/A
N/A
$48,912
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$52,216
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Round of 16

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$5,451
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$79,487
N/A
N/A
$53,222
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$65,058
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Round of 32

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$1,420
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$28,770
N/A
N/A
$23,674
Settled
No
polymarket

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,112
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Group Stage

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 22

Intro

This market tracks the stage at which Argentina will be eliminated from the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup, or whether they win the tournament as Champion. Aggregated across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict, the consensus probability for Argentina being eliminated in the Final stands at 100.0%, based on Official FIFA sources and credible reporting as secondary verification. Watch for Argentina's performance through the group stage and knockout rounds leading up to the World Cup Final on July 19, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All three platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict) apply identical resolution logic: Argentina resolves to the tournament stage at which they are eliminated, or to 'Champion' if they win the final.Primary resolution logic: Official FIFA sources (fifa.com); consensus of credible reporting as secondary source

Core resolution logic:

  • If Argentina wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final, market resolves to 'Champion'
  • If Argentina is eliminated in Group Stage, market resolves to 'Group Stage'
  • If Argentina is eliminated in Round of 32, market resolves to 'Round of 32'
  • If Argentina is eliminated in Round of 16, market resolves to 'Round of 16'
  • If Argentina is eliminated in Quarterfinals, market resolves to 'Quarterfinals'
  • If Argentina is eliminated in Semifinals, market resolves to 'Semifinals'
  • If Argentina is eliminated in Final (runner-up), market resolves to 'Final'

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Disqualification or Withdrawal: If Argentina is disqualified, withdraws, or is removed from the tournament, resolution defaults to the furthest completed round reached based on best available official information
  • Tournament Incompletion: If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is partially completed and not finished for any reason, resolution reflects the furthest completed round reached by Argentina
  • Tournament Cancellation: If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full or postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, market resolves to 'Other'
Timing: Resolution occurs upon completion of the match or round in which Argentina's tournament participation ends, or upon official FIFA announcement of tournament status changes. Final resolution deadline is tied to tournament completion or the August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET cancellation threshold.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Argentina is eliminated. If Argentina wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Argentina is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Argentina based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Argentina's elimination stage is determined by the farthest point they reach in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. If Argentina withdraws, forfeits, or is disqualified at any point, their elimination stage is based on the farthest stage they reached prior to such action. For example, if a team withdraws after winning a Round of 32 match, the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes, representing the next stage where they would have competed. A team that loses in the Semifinals resolves the Semifinals market to Yes regardless of third-place match results. The Outright Winner market resolves to Yes only if Argentina wins the Final.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Argentina is eliminated. If Argentina wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Argentina is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Argentina based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Kalshi for the same underlying question: whether Argentina will be eliminated in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup. You can monitor live chance percentages, trading volume, and consensus probability shifts as the tournament approaches. The multi-platform view lets you compare how different prediction markets price Argentina's survival odds, revealing where smart money is flowing and identifying arbitrage opportunities between venues.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate independently from traditional sportsbooks and often reflect different risk models, liquidity pools, and trader demographics. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin; prediction markets aggregate belief through continuous trading. For Argentina's group-stage fate, comparing prediction market consensus against major sportsbook lines can reveal whether professional oddsmakers and retail traders agree on elimination risk. Discrepancies may signal mispricing or different information sets.

Key catalysts include Argentina's pre-tournament friendlies and squad announcements, which reveal team form and injury status. Group-stage draw details and opponent strength will shift perceived elimination risk. During the tournament itself, Argentina's actual match results, goal differential, and head-to-head outcomes directly impact survival odds. Injuries to star players, coaching changes, or unexpected team dynamics can trigger sharp repricing. Late-stage group matches where Argentina's advancement is mathematically decided will drive final market settlement.