TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 6, 9:33 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Notre Dame will win the first half of their college football game against Wisconsin by more than 2.5 points. Currently, Kalshi gives an 86.0% probability to Notre Dame winning the first half by over 2.5 points, with resolution determined by the outcome of the first half of the Wisconsin vs Notre Dame game originally scheduled for September 6, 2026, as reported by the game’s official results. Keep a close eye on the game itself, as this market will resolve based on the final score at the end of the first half on September 7, 2026.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the first half of the Wisconsin vs Notre Dame college football game scheduled for September 6, 2026. For markets where Notre Dame wins by a specified margin or more in the first half, the respective market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Conversely, for markets where Wisconsin wins by a specified margin or more in the first half, that market resolves to Yes if Wisconsin meets or exceeds that margin, otherwise No. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, all open markets will resolve based on the official first-half result. If the game fails to start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all affected markets will resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe the sportsbook line is inaccurate, the price here will move accordingly. This can lead to discrepancies, with this market sometimes offering more favorable odds than those found at sportsbooks, depending on public perception and information available before the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting a certain spread, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the game approaches. The current price reflects the collective forecast of all traders participating in this market.
This market resolves around Sep 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the first half result of the Wisconsin vs Notre Dame game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official point spread difference at the end of the first half, as determined by official game statistics. The contracts will then pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by the purchased contracts. The final outcome will be publicly available following the conclusion of the first half.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game begins. News regarding key player injuries for either Wisconsin or Notre Dame would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse playing conditions, could also impact the spread. Additionally, any major shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by expert analysis or updated betting trends, could lead to increased trading volume and price fluctuations. Finally, any late-breaking news related to team strategy or coaching decisions could also move this market.