TOTAL VOLUME:

$54.4b

24H VOL:

$216,099,358

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,189,677,720

500,754

Markets across

13,672

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,801

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

51%

VS.

Kalshi:

49%

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kalshi
polymarket
Trending

Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free

Volume:
$259,255
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade

Description

This event group covers prediction markets for the Men's 10km Interval Start Free Cross Country Skiing event at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milano-Cortina. Markets resolve based on which athlete wins the gold medal in this specific discipline. Both Kalshi and Polymarket offer individual athlete winner markets with consistent resolution criteria tied to official IOC medal awards.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical resolution logic: gold medal winner determination via official IOC records at the time of medal ceremony, with no post-ceremony amendments considered.

Primary resolution logic:

International Olympic Committee official website (https://www.olympics.com/)

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves YES if the named athlete is awarded the gold medal in Men's 10km Interval Start Free at 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics
  • Resolution is determined at the time of the official medal/podium ceremony
  • Subsequent disqualifications, appeals, or amendments after the ceremony are not considered for resolution purposes
  • Each athlete has an individual binary market; exactly one athlete will win gold
  • If multiple athletes are awarded gold (tie), Polymarket specifies alphabetical ordering of names as tiebreaker

Edge cases & Clarifications:

  • Event Postponement or Cancellation: If the event is postponed after March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET or canceled entirely, Polymarket markets resolve to OTHER; Kalshi markets resolve to NO. Both platforms treat this as a non-resolution scenario.
  • No Gold Medal Declared: If no gold medal is declared by March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to OTHER; Kalshi resolves to NO.
  • Athlete Elimination or Disqualification Before Event: If a listed athlete becomes ineligible per IOC rules before the race (e.g., injury, doping ban), Polymarket resolves that market to NO. Kalshi does not explicitly address pre-event elimination but implies NO resolution.
  • Post-Ceremony Disqualification: Both platforms explicitly state that disqualifications or amendments occurring after the medal ceremony are not considered. The athlete who received gold at the ceremony is the resolution winner regardless of later actions.
  • Placeholder Markets on Polymarket: Polymarket includes 11 placeholder markets (Placeholder 1-15 excluding some numbers) with no named athlete. These will resolve based on whether an unlisted athlete wins gold; resolution depends on Polymarket's handling of unspecified winners.

Timing:

Resolution occurs at the time of the official medal ceremony for the Men's 10km Interval Start Free event at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Final resolution deadline is March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET; events not concluded by this time resolve to OTHER (Polymarket) or NO (Kalshi).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.