TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 500m
polymarket
kalshi

Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 500m

Volume:
$372,632

Arianna Fontana

 - Kalshi

Arianna Fontana - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Feb 15, 2026

Will Arianna Fontana win any medal in Short Track Speed Skating Women's 500m?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: N/A Illiquid market
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Arianna Fontana

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$3,200
$6,732
0%
0%
$4,505
N/A
kalshi

Courtney Lee Sarault

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$1,821
$4,138
0%
0%
$2,759
N/A
kalshi

Xandra Velzeboer

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$6,223
$938
0%
0%
$849
N/A
polymarket

Femke Kok (NED)

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$24,333
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Min-Sun Kim (KOR)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$232,148
$31,640
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Na-Hyun Lee (KOR)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$228,486
$29,157
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Erin Jackson (USA)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$232,689
$25,759
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Yukino Yoshida (JPN)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$233,847
$23,975
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Jutta Leerdam (NED)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$241,613
$23,430
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Kaja Ziomek-Nogal (POL)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$238,863
$19,836
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Anna Boersma (NED)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$248,878
$18,722
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Sophie Warmuth (GER)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$249,012
$11,357
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Martyna Baran (POL)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$244,041
$10,043
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Beatrice Lamarche (CAN)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$249,603
$9,922
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Sofia Thorup (DEN)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$254,541
$9,427
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Ruining Tian (CHN)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$249,553
$8,189
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Carolina Hiller-Donnelly (CAN)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$248,059
$5,281
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Kurumi Inegawa (JPN)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$234,338
$5,118
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Serena Pergher (ITA)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$242,207
$5,111
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Andzelika Wojcik (POL)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$242,123
$4,507
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Kristina Silaeva (KAZ)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$241,950
$2,448
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Rio Yamada (JPN)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$239,819
$2,093
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
kalshi

Kristen Santos

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$9,535
$21,976
0%
0%
$15,511
N/A
kalshi

Minjeong Choi

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$14,360
$17,196
0%
0%
$14,533
N/A
kalshi

Michelle Velzeboer

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$8,979
$12,179
0%
0%
$6,575
N/A
Total markets: 25 of 69

Description

This event group covers prediction markets for the Women's 500m Speed Skating gold medal at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Polymarket offers individual markets for specific skaters winning gold, while Kalshi offers markets on whether specific skaters win any medal (gold, silver, or bronze). The two platforms are measuring fundamentally different outcomes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two critical divergences exist: (1) Scope mismatch—Polymarket resolves on gold medal only while Kalshi resolves on any medal; (2) Discipline ambiguity—Kalshi explicitly states SHORT TRACK speed skating while Polymarket does not specify, and these are distinct Olympic events with different athletes and rules.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets are fungible. Confirm with each platform whether Kalshi truly means short track (a contact-based discipline with heats/semifinals) versus long track (individual time trials). A skater medaling in one discipline will not medal in the other. For Polymarket, clarify the status of 15 placeholder entries before settlement. For Kalshi, understand that any medal (including bronze) triggers resolution, making these much easier to hit than gold-only markets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves YES only if the named athlete wins the GOLD MEDAL in Women's 500m Speed Skating at 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Resolution source is official IOC/olympics.com. Deadline is March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Includes 15 placeholder entries whose final identities are unknown. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve according to the participant...that is awarded the gold medal at the time of the corresponding medal/podium ceremony.'
  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if the named athlete wins ANY MEDAL (gold, silver, or bronze) in the 2026 Winter Olympics SHORT TRACK Speed Skating Women's 500m. No explicit deadline or source specified. Key Quote: 'If [athlete] wins any medal in the 2026 Winter Olympics Short Track Speed Skating Women's 500m, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.