TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 500m
Volume:
$372,632
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers prediction markets for the Women's 500m Speed Skating gold medal at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Polymarket offers individual markets for specific skaters winning gold, while Kalshi offers markets on whether specific skaters win any medal (gold, silver, or bronze). The two platforms are measuring fundamentally different outcomes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two critical divergences exist: (1) Scope mismatch—Polymarket resolves on gold medal only while Kalshi resolves on any medal; (2) Discipline ambiguity—Kalshi explicitly states SHORT TRACK speed skating while Polymarket does not specify, and these are distinct Olympic events with different athletes and rules.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets are fungible. Confirm with each platform whether Kalshi truly means short track (a contact-based discipline with heats/semifinals) versus long track (individual time trials). A skater medaling in one discipline will not medal in the other. For Polymarket, clarify the status of 15 placeholder entries before settlement. For Kalshi, understand that any medal (including bronze) triggers resolution, making these much easier to hit than gold-only markets.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Resolves YES only if the named athlete wins the GOLD MEDAL in Women's 500m Speed Skating at 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Resolution source is official IOC/olympics.com. Deadline is March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Includes 15 placeholder entries whose final identities are unknown. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve according to the participant...that is awarded the gold medal at the time of the corresponding medal/podium ceremony.'
- Kalshi: Resolves YES if the named athlete wins ANY MEDAL (gold, silver, or bronze) in the 2026 Winter Olympics SHORT TRACK Speed Skating Women's 500m. No explicit deadline or source specified. Key Quote: 'If [athlete] wins any medal in the 2026 Winter Olympics Short Track Speed Skating Women's 500m, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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