This event group covers prediction markets for the Women's Freeski Big Air gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milano-Cortina. Both Kalshi and Polymarket offer markets on whether specific athletes will win the gold medal, with Kalshi presenting a single binary outcome across 31 named athletes and Polymarket offering individual yes/no markets for each athlete plus a catch-all 'someone else' option.
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms resolve to the same underlying event—the official IOC-awarded gold medal for Women's Freeski Big Air at 2026 Milano-Cortina—with consistent source authority and medal-ceremony timing, though Polymarket includes explicit handling for postponement, cancellation, and alphabetical tie-breaking.
Primary resolution logic:
International Olympic Committee official records and medal ceremony declaration (https://www.olympics.com/)
Core resolution logic:
Resolution is determined by which athlete is awarded the gold medal at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics Women's Freeski Big Air event
The resolution source is the official IOC announcement and medal ceremony at the time of the event
Kalshi resolves 'Yes' if any of the 31 named athletes wins gold; Polymarket offers individual yes/no markets for each athlete plus a catch-all 'someone else' option
Subsequent disqualifications, amendments, or appeals after the medal ceremony are not considered for resolution
In case of multiple gold medal awards, Polymarket applies alphabetical ordering by participant name as listed in the market
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Event postponement or cancellation: If the event is postponed after March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET or canceled entirely, Polymarket resolves to 'Other'. Kalshi does not explicitly address this scenario in provided rules.
No gold medal declared: If no gold medal is declared within the timeframe specified (by March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET per Polymarket), Polymarket resolves to 'Other'.
Athlete elimination or ineligibility: If a listed athlete becomes ineligible per IOC rules before or during the event, Polymarket resolves 'No' for that athlete's market. Kalshi does not explicitly address this.
Placeholder markets on Polymarket: Polymarket includes 8 placeholder markets (Placeholder 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15) with no named athlete. These are likely reserved for late-entry competitors or data corrections and should resolve based on the actual gold medalist if a placeholder corresponds to that athlete.
Typo in Polymarket athlete name: Polymarket lists 'Megan Oldhamm' (with double 'm') while Kalshi lists 'Megan Oldham' (single 'm'). This is a minor data integrity issue but both refer to the same athlete; resolution should treat them as identical.
Timing:
Resolution occurs at the time of the medal ceremony for the Women's Freeski Big Air event at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Polymarket specifies a hard deadline of March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET; if the event has not concluded by then, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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