TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers prediction markets for the Women's 1500m Speed Skating competition at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Both Kalshi and Polymarket offer binary markets on whether specific athletes will win the gold medal, with Kalshi listing 29 named competitors and Polymarket using a mix of named athletes and numbered placeholders to represent the full field.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms converge on the same core resolution: the athlete whose name appears on the official IOC medal certificate at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Women's 1500m Speed Skating ceremony. Kalshi's 29 named athletes and Polymarket's combination of named athletes plus placeholders represent overlapping subsets of the expected competitor pool, with no contradictory resolution logic.
Primary resolution logic:
International Olympic Committee official records and medal ceremony documentation (https://www.olympics.com/)Core resolution logic:
- Resolution occurs at the moment the gold medal is awarded and announced at the official medal ceremony for Women's 1500m Speed Skating at 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics
- The market resolves YES if the named athlete wins the gold medal; NO if any other athlete wins or the named athlete is eliminated per IOC rules
- Subsequent disqualifications, appeals, or amendments after the ceremony are not considered for resolution purposes
- If multiple athletes are awarded gold (rare tie scenario), Polymarket applies alphabetical ordering by listed name; Kalshi's individual athlete markets each resolve independently based on whether that specific athlete is among the gold medalists
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Event postponement or cancellation: Polymarket explicitly resolves to Other if the event is postponed after March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET or canceled. Kalshi does not specify this scenario; assume standard cancellation protocol (likely No resolution or event void).
- Tied gold medals: Polymarket resolves in favor of the participant whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Kalshi's named-athlete structure means each athlete market resolves independently: YES if that athlete is among the gold medalists, NO otherwise.
- Athlete elimination or ineligibility: If a listed athlete is eliminated per IOC rules before or during the event, their corresponding market resolves NO.
- Placeholder resolution (Polymarket only): Polymarket uses numbered placeholders (Placeholder 1–15) to represent athletes not explicitly named. These resolve YES only if the corresponding unnamed athlete wins gold. The mapping of placeholders to actual athletes is not provided in source data and must be clarified by Polymarket before event.
Timing:
Resolution occurs at the official medal ceremony for Women's 1500m Speed Skating at 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Polymarket enforces a hard deadline: if no gold medal is declared by March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other. Kalshi does not specify a deadline but follows standard Olympic resolution timing (ceremony date).Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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