TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Winter Games 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 1500m
Volume:
$120,521
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers prediction markets for the Men's 1500m Speed Skating gold medal at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Polymarket offers individual participant-level markets (named athletes plus 15 placeholders), while Kalshi offers country-level markets. Both resolve based on the official IOC medal ceremony outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi operate at different levels of granularity (individual athlete vs. country). Additionally, Polymarket includes 15 unidentified placeholder participants, creating data integrity risk if those placeholders are never populated with real athlete names.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles. Polymarket's placeholder markets are unresolvable without official roster data; Kalshi's country-level markets are simpler but mask individual athlete outcomes. Monitor official IOC athlete registration before the event to assess Polymarket placeholder risk.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Individual athlete-level resolution. Named athletes (Zhongyan Ning, Kazuya Yamada, Finn Sonnekalb, Min-Seok Kim, Taiyo Nonomura, Gabriel Odor, Daniele Di Stefano, Peder Kongshaug, Joep Wennemars, Kjeld Nuis, Jordan Stolz, Tijmen Snel, Alexander Farthofer) plus 15 unnamed placeholders. Resolves YES if that specific athlete wins gold; NO if eliminated per IOC rules. Tie-breaking by alphabetical order of athlete name. Catch-all 'someone else' market for unlisted winners. Key quote: 'If multiple participants are awarded the gold medal, this market will resolve in favor of the participant whose listed name comes first alphabetically.'
- Kalshi: Country-level resolution across 14 nations (Norway, Canada, Netherlands, Czechia, Belgium, Austria, United States, Poland, Japan, France, Germany, China PR, Korea Republic, Italy). Resolves YES if that nation's athlete wins gold, regardless of which individual athlete from that nation. No tie-breaking or placeholder mechanism.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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