TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Winter Games 2026: Bobsled - 4 Man (Driver)
polymarket
kalshi

Winter Games 2026: Bobsled - 4 Man (Driver)

Volume:
$45,824

Germany

 - Kalshi

Germany - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Feb 22, 2026

Will Germany win the gold medal in Bobsledding Men's Bobsleigh Four?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: N/A Illiquid market
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Germany

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,625
0%
0%
$3,058
N/A
polymarket

Johannes Lochner (GER)

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,358
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Adam Ammour (GER)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$265,473
$2,236
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Michael Vogt (SUI)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$262,633
$2,014
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Brad Hall (GBR)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$257,738
$1,960
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Cedric Follador (SUI)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$269,399
$1,725
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Matej Behounek (CZE)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$264,448
$1,464
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Frank Del Duca (USA)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$262,087
$1,105
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Francesco Friedrich (GER)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$263,009
$794
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Dave Wesselink (NED)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$258,084
$775
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Markus Treichl (AUT)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$257,940
$642
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Jakob Mandlbauer (AUT)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$257,921
$614
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Kristopher Horn (USA)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$257,916
$550
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Mihai Cristian Tentea (ROU)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$257,990
$541
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Jinsu Kim (KOR)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$257,944
$482
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
kalshi

Jamaica

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,463
0%
0%
$6,463
N/A
kalshi

United States

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,512
0%
0%
$2,512
N/A
polymarket

Romain Heinrich (FRA)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$1,888
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
kalshi

Switzerland

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,885
0%
0%
$1,885
N/A
kalshi

France

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,589
0%
0%
$1,589
N/A
polymarket

Kaizhi Sun (CHN)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$1,560
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
kalshi

Austria

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,421
0%
0%
$1,421
N/A
kalshi

Canada

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$992
0%
0%
$992
N/A
polymarket

Patrick Baumgartner (ITA)

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$828
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
kalshi

Great Britain

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$625
0%
0%
$625
N/A
Total markets: 25 of 52

Description

This event group covers prediction markets for the gold medal winner in the Men's 4-Person Bobsled event at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Markets are structured as individual driver-level contracts on Polymarket and country-level contracts on Kalshi, both resolving based on the official IOC medal ceremony outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Structural scope divergence: Polymarket uses individual driver contracts while Kalshi uses country-level contracts. Additionally, Polymarket includes 15 unidentified placeholder drivers that cannot be resolved without clarification of their identities.Hero tip: Do not treat Polymarket and Kalshi as interchangeable markets for this event. Polymarket resolves on individual drivers (one gold medal = one driver contract resolves YES, others NO); Kalshi resolves on countries (one gold medal = one country contract resolves YES, others NO). Cross-platform arbitrage is not possible. Request immediate clarification on all placeholder drivers on Polymarket before the event, as they are currently unresolvable.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Individual driver-level resolution. Each of 36 contracts represents a single driver (named or placeholder). Resolves YES if that specific driver wins gold. Includes tie-breaking rule: if multiple drivers awarded gold, resolves YES for alphabetically first name. Contains 15 placeholder drivers (Placeholder 1-15) with no identity information, making them unresolvable. Cancellation/postponement after March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET resolves to Other. Source: olympics.com.
  • Kalshi: Country-level resolution. 18 separate contracts, each representing one country. Each resolves YES if that country wins the gold medal in Men's 4-Person Bobsled. No explicit tie-breaking, cancellation, or postponement rules provided. Implicitly resolves NO if another country wins. Source: implied IOC/official results.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.