TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers prediction markets for the gold medal winner in the Men's 4-Person Bobsled event at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Markets are structured as individual driver-level contracts on Polymarket and country-level contracts on Kalshi, both resolving based on the official IOC medal ceremony outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Structural scope divergence: Polymarket uses individual driver contracts while Kalshi uses country-level contracts. Additionally, Polymarket includes 15 unidentified placeholder drivers that cannot be resolved without clarification of their identities.Hero Tip:
Do not treat Polymarket and Kalshi as interchangeable markets for this event. Polymarket resolves on individual drivers (one gold medal = one driver contract resolves YES, others NO); Kalshi resolves on countries (one gold medal = one country contract resolves YES, others NO). Cross-platform arbitrage is not possible. Request immediate clarification on all placeholder drivers on Polymarket before the event, as they are currently unresolvable.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Individual driver-level resolution. Each of 36 contracts represents a single driver (named or placeholder). Resolves YES if that specific driver wins gold. Includes tie-breaking rule: if multiple drivers awarded gold, resolves YES for alphabetically first name. Contains 15 placeholder drivers (Placeholder 1-15) with no identity information, making them unresolvable. Cancellation/postponement after March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET resolves to Other. Source: olympics.com.Kalshi:
Country-level resolution. 18 separate contracts, each representing one country. Each resolves YES if that country wins the gold medal in Men's 4-Person Bobsled. No explicit tie-breaking, cancellation, or postponement rules provided. Implicitly resolves NO if another country wins. Source: implied IOC/official results.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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