TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers prediction markets on the 2026 Winter Olympics Men's 15km Biathlon Mass Start event. Kalshi markets resolve YES if any of 32 named athletes wins a medal (gold, silver, or bronze), while Polymarket markets each resolve YES only if a specific named athlete wins the gold medal exclusively.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi markets cover any medal (gold, silver, bronze) for 32 named athletes, while Polymarket markets cover only gold medals for a partially overlapping set of athletes plus placeholders and a catch-all option. The medal scope difference means the same athlete finishing second or third resolves YES on Kalshi but NO on Polymarket.Hero Tip:
Treat Kalshi and Polymarket as separate event spaces. Kalshi bets are hedged across all three medal positions; Polymarket bets are concentrated on gold only. If you hold both, calculate breakeven assuming the athlete finishes in each medal position independently. Watch for Polymarket placeholder resolution — if an unlisted athlete wins gold, placeholders may resolve YES while named athletes resolve NO.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
32 binary markets, each resolving YES if the named athlete wins any medal (gold, silver, or bronze) at the 2026 Winter Olympics Men's 15km Biathlon Mass Start. No explicit tie-breaking, disqualification, or cancellation rules provided. Resolution source: implicit (event outcome).Polymarket:
50 markets covering gold medal only: 32 named athletes, 15 placeholders, and 1 catch-all (someone else). Each resolves YES only if that specific athlete wins gold. Disqualifications post-ceremony are ignored. Multiple gold awardees broken alphabetically. Event postponed after 31 Mar 2026 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or no gold declared within timeframe resolves to Other. Resolution source: official IOC (olympics.com).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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