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Wimbledon WTA: Katie Swan vs Madison Keys
kalshi
limitless
polymarket

Who will win Swan vs Keys?

Volume:
$747,092

Madison Keys

 - Kalshi

Madison Keys - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 2, 9:45 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Madison Keys

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$358,929
N/A
N/A
$198,930
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Katie Swan vs Madison Keys Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$635
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Katie Swan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$290,537
N/A
N/A
$142,480
Settled
No
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Katie Swan vs Madison Keys

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$95,820
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
limitless

Wimbledon: Katie Swan vs Madison Keys

View
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Katie Swan vs Madison Keys Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$638
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Katie Swan vs Madison Keys Set 1 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$448
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Katie Swan vs Madison Keys Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$45
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Katie Swan vs Madison Keys Set 2 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Katie Swan vs Madison Keys Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Katie Swan vs Madison Keys Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Katie Swan vs Madison Keys Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Katie Swan vs Madison Keys Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Katie Swan vs Madison Keys Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Katie Swan vs Madison Keys Match O/U 21.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Katie Swan vs Madison Keys Match O/U 22.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Katie Swan vs Madison Keys Match O/U 23.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 18

Description

This event group covers the professional tennis match between Katie Swan and Madison Keys at the 2026 Wimbledon Women's Singles tournament, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026. The markets track both the match winner and whether the match is completed under normal play conditions.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Three platforms define match resolution scope differently: Kalshi and Limitless accept all official outcomes (including walkovers and retirements) as valid resolutions, while Polymarket's winner market treats pre-match walkovers as 50-50 and its completion market explicitly requires full play. Polymarket's winner market also distinguishes between pre-match and mid-match withdrawal scenarios.Hero tip: Understand which platform you are trading on. Kalshi and Limitless reward you for any official winner (including via walkover or retirement). Polymarket's winner market penalizes pre-match walkovers (50-50) but honors mid-match retirements. Polymarket's completion market is a separate bet: it only pays YES if the match is fully played. Do not conflate the two Polymarket markets. If match is canceled or delayed beyond 7 days without completion, Polymarket winner market resolves 50-50; Polymarket completion market resolves NO; Kalshi and Limitless behavior is unclear for cancellation.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if either player wins after a ball has been played. Logic is minimal and does not explicitly address walkovers, retirements, or cancellations. Key quote: 'If Madison Keys wins the Swan vs Keys professional tennis match in the 2026 Wimbledon Women Singles Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Limitless: Resolves to the official winner regardless of match completion mechanism. Walkovers, retirements, withdrawals, defaults, and disqualifications all count as valid outcomes. Key quote: 'For the purposes of this market, a player officially declared the winner of the match will be considered to have defeated the opponent, including in cases of walkover, retirement, withdrawal, default, or disqualification.'
  • Polymarket (Winner Market): Resolves 50-50 for pre-match walkovers and cancellations; resolves to advancing player if match begins but incomplete due to retirement/default/disqualification; resolves 50-50 if delayed beyond 7 days without completion. Key quote: 'If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.'
  • Polymarket (Completion Market): Resolves YES only if all games and sets required to determine a winner are played to completion under normal play. Any non-completion (walkover, retirement, default, disqualification, cancellation, or delay beyond 7 days) resolves to NO. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if all games and sets required to determine a match winner under governing body or event organizer rules are played to completion through normal play. Otherwise, if the match is not completed for any reason, it will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Katie Swan and Madison Keys in the Wimbledon WTA, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Katie Swan' if Katie Swan advances against Madison Keys. This market will resolve to 'Madison Keys' if Madison Keys advances against Katie Swan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The Swan vs Keys match must have a ball played to be considered as having occurred. Resolution depends on which player wins the completed match. If the match is cancelled before play begins due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or other circumstances, the market resolves to a fair price per standard rules. Postponements or delays do not close the market; it remains open until the rescheduled match concludes, provided the reschedule occurs within two weeks.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Katie Swan" if Katie Swan defeats Madison Keys in their Wimbledon match originally scheduled for July 1, 2026, 09:03 UTC. It will resolve to "Madison Keys" if Madison Keys defeats Katie Swan. For the purposes of this market, a player officially declared the winner of the match will be considered to have defeated the opponent, including in cases of walkover, retirement, withdrawal, default, or disqualification.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price events differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets rely on trader consensus and real-money stakes to surface true probability. This market's odds reflect what thousands of independent traders believe will happen, often incorporating information faster than sportsbooks adjust their lines. Comparing the two can reveal valuable discrepancies for informed bettors.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Platform-specific factors drive pricing gaps: each exchange has its own liquidity pools, user demographics, and fee structures. Polymarket may attract traders with different risk appetites or information sets than Kalshi, causing one to price the outcome higher or lower. Regulatory frameworks and contract specifications also vary, influencing how traders hedge and position. Monitoring both platforms helps you identify mispricings and understand which view is gaining traction.

Player injury reports, recent tournament performance, head-to-head records, and court surface conditions are key catalysts that typically shift odds in tennis markets. Lineup confirmations, weather forecasts, and betting-market activity on external platforms can also trigger repricing here. Social media sentiment and expert commentary may influence retail traders, while sharp money often reacts to odds-on favorites or underdog value. Monitor sports news closely, as late-breaking developments frequently cause rapid position adjustments before the match begins.