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Wimbledon WTA: Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk?

Volume:
$559,013

Marta Kostyuk

 - Kalshi

Marta Kostyuk - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 4, 2026

Closed: Jul 4, 6:46 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Marta Kostyuk

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,335
N/A
N/A
$13,523
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk Set 2 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,899
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$525
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk Match O/U 21.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$86
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk Match O/U 23.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$49
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk Match O/U 22.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$42
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$33
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$523,866
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Emma Navarro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,166
N/A
N/A
$6,191
Settled
No
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,525
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$930
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk Set 1 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$683
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$529
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$340
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 18

Description

This event group covers the Wimbledon WTA Round of 32 match between Emma Navarro and Marta Kostyuk, scheduled for July 3, 2026. Three related markets track the match winner, completion status, and set 1 outcome across Polymarket and Kalshi platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket's match winner and completion markets contain contradictory logic for retirement/default scenarios. Kalshi's set 1 market lacks coverage for match cancellation or non-completion before set 1 concludes.Hero tip: Do not assume retirement automatically resolves the match winner market. Polymarket's completion market explicitly treats retirement as non-completion (No), while the match winner market credits the advancing player. Kalshi traders should request clarification on cancellation fallback, as the set 1 market does not specify a resolution if the match never reaches set 1.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Match winner resolves to advancing player on retirement/default/disqualification mid-match; completion market resolves to No on any forfeit including retirement. Contradiction: retirement triggers both a winner and a non-completion. Key quote (winner): 'If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.' Key quote (completion): 'If a forfeit of any kind occurs, including but not limited to a walkover or retirement, this market will resolve to No.'
  • Kalshi: Set 1 market resolves to Yes if either player wins set 1. No fallback logic for match cancellation, delay, or non-start before set 1 concludes. Key quote: 'If Emma Navarro wins set 1... or if Marta Kostyuk wins set 1... then the market resolves to Yes.' (No mention of cancellation or non-completion scenarios.)
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Emma Navarro and Marta Kostyuk in the Wimbledon WTA, originally scheduled for July 3, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Emma Navarro' if Emma Navarro advances against Marta Kostyuk. This market will resolve to 'Marta Kostyuk' if Marta Kostyuk advances against Emma Navarro. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if the indicated player wins set 1 of the Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk professional tennis match at the 2026 Wimbledon Women's Singles Round of 32. If the match does not occur before play begins due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or cancellation, the market resolves to a fair price. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled match concludes within two weeks. If a player retires, markets that can be unconditionally settled based on completed play resolve accordingly; those that cannot are resolved to Fair Market Price at the Exchange's discretion.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price outcomes differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, often incorporating sharp-money signals but also adjusting for retail flow. Prediction markets like those tracked here rely on decentralized trader consensus, where participants directly stake capital on outcomes with no house edge. This can make prediction markets more efficient at incorporating new information, though liquidity and market depth vary by platform. Comparing this market's prices to major sportsbooks can reveal whether traders or bookmakers are pricing the matchup more aggressively.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and contract structures. Polymarket and Kalshi may list slightly different outcome formulations—for instance, one might focus on the overall match winner while the other breaks down individual set outcomes. Fee structures, user interfaces, and regulatory frameworks also influence how quickly prices adjust to new information. Temporary liquidity imbalances on one platform can widen spreads relative to the other, creating short-term pricing gaps. Savvy traders monitor both venues to identify mispricings and execute cross-platform strategies before arbitrage narrows the gap.

Several catalysts could shift prices significantly before the match takes place. Player injuries, withdrawals, or fitness updates will trigger sharp repricing, especially if either competitor is sidelined. Recent tournament performance, head-to-head records, and court surface form are closely watched by traders. Weather forecasts closer to the event date may also matter, since Wimbledon's grass courts play differently in wet conditions. Media narratives, betting syndicates' positioning, and late-breaking news about player form or mental state can all move the needle. Monitor sports news and social media for breaking developments that might signal a shift in market consensus.