TOTAL VOLUME:

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2,388,728,490

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$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

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61%

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Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs McCartney Kessler
kalshi
limitless
polymarket

Who will win Sabalenka vs Kessler?

Volume:
$1,558,386

Aryna Sabalenka

 - Kalshi

Aryna Sabalenka - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 9:50 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Aryna Sabalenka

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$664,278
N/A
N/A
$467,738
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs McCartney Kessler

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$236,520
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
limitless

Wimbledon: Aryna Sabalenka vs McCartney Kessler

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs McCartney Kessler Set 2 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$23,704
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs McCartney Kessler Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,653
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs McCartney Kessler Set 1 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$238
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs McCartney Kessler Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

McCartney Kessler

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$631,536
N/A
N/A
$367,284
Settled
No
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs McCartney Kessler Match O/U 21.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$281
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs McCartney Kessler Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$132
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs McCartney Kessler Match O/U 22.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs McCartney Kessler Match O/U 23.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs McCartney Kessler Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs McCartney Kessler Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs McCartney Kessler Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs McCartney Kessler Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs McCartney Kessler Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 18

Intro

This market tracks whether Aryna Sabalenka will defeat McCartney Kessler in their 2026 Wimbledon Women's Singles Round of 64 match. Across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless, the aggregated consensus shows 100.0% probability for Sabalenka to win, as resolved by the official match outcome. The scheduled match date of July 1, 2026 marks the event window, with final resolution occurring by July 8, 2026 once the match concludes and an official winner is determined.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket defines match completion and forfeit handling differently across two related markets, while Kalshi and Limitless accept all official outcomes including walkovers and retirements as valid resolutions. The core divergence is whether non-completion-through-play scenarios (retirement, walkover, default) count as valid match outcomes.Hero tip: If you believe there is elevated retirement or injury risk, Kalshi and Limitless will pay out on the advancing player, but Polymarket's Completed Match market will not. Conversely, if you expect full play-through, all platforms align. Consider the player health profile and match context before taking positions. The Polymarket Winner market is the safest proxy for Kalshi/Limitless logic.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves Yes for either player if a ball is played and an official winner is declared. Accepts all outcomes including retirement and walkover as valid. Key Quote: 'after a ball has been played.'
  • Limitless: Resolves to the official winner regardless of method—walkover, retirement, withdrawal, default, and disqualification all count as valid outcomes. Key Quote: 'a player officially declared the winner of the match will be considered to have defeated the opponent, including in cases of walkover, retirement, withdrawal, default, or disqualification.'
  • Polymarket (Completed Match): Resolves Yes only if match is completed through normal play with all games and sets played. Resolves No for any forfeit including walkover or retirement. Key Quote: 'If a forfeit of any kind occurs, including but not limited to a walkover or retirement, this market will resolve to No.'
  • Polymarket (Winner): Resolves to advancing player if retirement/default/disqualification occurs mid-match; resolves 50-50 for pre-match walkover. Key Quote: 'If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Aryna Sabalenka and McCartney Kessler in the Wimbledon WTA, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aryna Sabalenka' if Aryna Sabalenka advances against McCartney Kessler. This market will resolve to 'McCartney Kessler' if McCartney Kessler advances against Aryna Sabalenka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The match must have a ball played to be considered official. If the match does not occur before play begins due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or other cancellation, the market resolves to a fair price. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled match concludes, provided the rescheduling occurs within two weeks. The winner is determined by the player who prevails in the completed match.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Aryna Sabalenka" if Aryna Sabalenka defeats McCartney Kessler in their Wimbledon match originally scheduled for July 1, 2026, 09:03 UTC. It will resolve to "McCartney Kessler" if McCartney Kessler defeats Aryna Sabalenka. For the purposes of this market, a player officially declared the winner of the match will be considered to have defeated the opponent, including in cases of walkover, retirement, withdrawal, default, or disqualification.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed sportsbook lines. Traders directly set odds by buying and selling shares, which means prices reflect live consensus rather than a bookmaker's margin. Sportsbooks typically build in 4–5% juice and adjust lines to balance liability, while prediction markets often show tighter spreads and faster price discovery. For this matchup, comparing the aggregated odds here to major sportsbooks can reveal whether one side is undervalued or if sharp money is moving in a particular direction.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures. Kalshi's binary contract design and regulatory framework may appeal to institutional traders seeking precise hedges, while Limitless draws retail participation through broader market access. Order flow timing, funding availability, and platform-specific incentives also create temporary mispricings. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these gaps, but friction costs and withdrawal delays can keep spreads persistent, especially in lower-volume matchups.

Player injuries, recent tournament performance, head-to-head records, and court surface conditions are primary catalysts. Sabalenka's ranking, seeding, and recent form carry significant weight, as do Kessler's upset potential and playing style matchups. Weather forecasts, draw announcements, and pre-match media sentiment can also shift trader positioning. Late-breaking news—such as a player withdrawal or unexpected ranking change—often triggers sharp repricing. Monitor official tour updates and player social media for real-time signals that may influence odds before the Round of 64 begins.