TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff
kalshi
predict
limitless
polymarket

What is the game spread between Brandon Nakashima and Jan-Lennard Struff?

Volume:
$917,693

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 1 Winner

 - Polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 1 Winner - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 8, 9:30 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 1 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,154
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 4 O/U 10.5

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$161
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 3 O/U 8.5

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 3 O/U 9.5

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 3 O/U 10.5

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 4 O/U 8.5

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 4 O/U 9.5

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 1 O/U 8.5

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$84
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff Total Sets: O/U 3.5

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$58
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff Match O/U 36.5

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$53
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 2 O/U 9.5

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$48
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 2 O/U 10.5

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$48
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff Total Sets: O/U 4.5

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$43
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff Match O/U 40.5

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$43
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 1 O/U 9.5

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$39
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff Match O/U 38.5

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$39
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 2 O/U 8.5

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$34
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$893,325
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff

N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$47
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

Wimbledon: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff

N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Brandon Nakashima -4.5 games

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,717
N/A
N/A
$7,578
Settled
No
kalshi

Brandon Nakashima -1.5 games

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,619
N/A
N/A
$2,303
Settled
No
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set Handicap +/-1.5

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,134
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Brandon Nakashima -7.5 games

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$676
N/A
N/A
$676
Settled
No
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set Handicap +/-2.5

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$549
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 30

Intro

This event group tracks the outcome of the Wimbledon ATP tennis match between Brandon Nakashima and Jan-Lennard Struff scheduled for July 1, 2026. The aggregated consensus across Kalshi, Predict, Limitless, and Polymarket shows 100.0% probability for Nakashima to win Set 1. Resolution will be determined by the official ATP Tour scoring database. Watch for the match completion on July 1, 2026, as markets span multiple resolution metrics including set winners, game differentials, and match completion status.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Four distinct resolution frameworks exist: Kalshi uses game differential thresholds as the settlement metric, Limitless resolves to match winner regardless of completion method, Polymarket splits into two incompatible markets (Completed Match as binary completion status vs. Winner as player advancement), and Predict mirrors Polymarket's Winner logic. These are not equivalent markets.Hero tip: Kalshi markets are fundamentally different instruments—they measure game margin, not match outcome. If you are betting on Nakashima to win, Kalshi's 1.5-game threshold is a much lower bar than a straight win bet on Limitless or Polymarket. Conversely, if Nakashima wins 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 (18-9 game differential), Kalshi Yes markets all hit, but Polymarket's Completed Match also hits Yes. However, if Nakashima wins via retirement at 6-4, 3-1, Limitless and Predict resolve to Nakashima, but Polymarket's Completed Match resolves to No. Ensure your hedge strategy accounts for these distinct payoff structures.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Three separate markets, each with a game differential threshold (1.5, 4.5, 7.5 games in Nakashima's favor). Resolution is binary Yes/No based solely on final game count across all sets, independent of match outcome. Key Quote: 'If the game differential in favor of Brandon Nakashima across the full match is above [threshold] games...then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Limitless: Binary winner market resolving to the player name of the official match winner. Accepts all forms of player advancement including walkover, retirement, withdrawal, default, or disqualification. Key Quote: 'A player officially declared the winner of the match will be considered to have defeated the opponent, including in cases of walkover, retirement, withdrawal, default, or disqualification.'
  • Polymarket (Completed Match): Binary Yes/No market on match completion through normal play only. Resolves No if match is forfeited, involves walkover, retirement, default, disqualification, cancellation, tie, or delayed beyond 7 days without winner. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if all games and sets required to determine a match winner under governing body or event organizer rules are played to completion through normal play. Otherwise...it will resolve to No.'
  • Polymarket (Winner) & Predict: Player name resolution with 50-50 tie-break for walkovers, cancellations, ties, or delays beyond 7 days. If match begins and one player advances via retirement/default/disqualification, resolves to advancing player. Key Quote: 'If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Brandon Nakashima and Jan-Lennard Struff in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Brandon Nakashima' if Brandon Nakashima advances against Jan-Lennard Struff. This market will resolve to 'Jan-Lennard Struff' if Jan-Lennard Struff advances against Brandon Nakashima. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the game differential in favor of Brandon Nakashima across the full match in the 2026 Wimbledon Men's Singles Round of 64. A positive differential means Nakashima won more games than Struff by the specified margin. If the match does not occur before play begins due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or cancellation, the market resolves to fair price. If postponed or delayed, the market remains open until the rescheduled match concludes within two weeks. If a player retires, markets that can be unconditionally settled based on completed play resolve accordingly; those that cannot are settled at fair market price at the Exchange's discretion.

Predict

This market refers to the tennis match between Brandon Nakashima and Jan-Lennard Struff in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Brandon Nakashima' if Brandon Nakashima advances against Jan-Lennard Struff. This market will resolve to 'Jan-Lennard Struff' if Jan-Lennard Struff advances against Brandon Nakashima. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Brandon Nakashima" if Brandon Nakashima defeats Jan-Lennard Struff in their Wimbledon match originally scheduled for July 1, 2026, 09:03 UTC. It will resolve to "Jan-Lennard Struff" if Jan-Lennard Struff defeats Brandon Nakashima. For the purposes of this market, a player officially declared the winner of the match will be considered to have defeated the opponent, including in cases of walkover, retirement, withdrawal, default, or disqualification.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price tennis matches differently because they serve different audiences. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a margin; prediction markets rely on trader consensus to discover price. On this market, the prediction-market odds reflect real-money traders' beliefs about the game spread, while traditional sportsbooks may emphasize match-winner or set spreads instead. Prediction markets often react faster to breaking news—injuries, weather, recent form—because traders profit immediately from being first. Comparing this market's odds to a sportsbook's tennis spread can reveal whether one venue is undervaluing or overvaluing Nakashima's chances, though liquidity and market depth will influence how quickly those gaps close.

Polymarket and Kalshi may price this market differently for several structural reasons. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts distinct trader demographics, risk tolerances, and information sets; Polymarket's user base might weight recent Wimbledon form more heavily, while Kalshi's cohort could emphasize career head-to-head records. Liquidity depth also matters: if one venue has deeper order books, prices stabilize faster and reflect marginal trades more efficiently. Settlement mechanics and fee structures differ too, subtly shifting incentives. Finally, timing lags mean prices diverge temporarily as news flows unevenly across platforms. Savvy traders monitor both to identify mispricings and execute arbitrage before consensus realigns.