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Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm
kalshi
polymarket
limitless

Who will win Rinderknech vs Damm Jr?

Volume:
$1,239,181

Arthur Rinderknech

 - Kalshi

Arthur Rinderknech - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 11:25 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Arthur Rinderknech

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$378,015
N/A
N/A
$184,233
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$120,463
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
limitless

Wimbledon: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm

View
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm Set 1 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,560
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,209
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm Set 2 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$634
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm Set Handicap +/-2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$183
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm Set 3 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$34
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.5¢
N/A
$34
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.5¢
N/A
$34
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$34
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$34
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm Set 3 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
20¢
N/A
$14
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm Set 4 Winner

View
50%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
1¢
N/A
$3,433
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Martin Damm Jr

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$727,425
N/A
N/A
$416,677
Settled
No
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm Match O/U 40.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,262
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,058
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm Total Sets: O/U 3.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$500
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm Total Sets: O/U 4.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$153
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm Match O/U 36.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$40
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm Match O/U 38.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$40
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm Set 3 O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm Set 3 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 28

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the professional tennis match between Arthur Rinderknech and Martin Damm in the 2026 Wimbledon Men's Singles Round of 64. The aggregated consensus across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless shows 100.0% probability for the leading outcome. Resolution is determined by official Wimbledon records and ATP data. Watch for the match scheduled on July 1, 2026, as the actual event date, with final settlement occurring by the resolution deadline of July 8, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Limitless treat any official winner declaration (including walkovers and forfeits) as a resolved outcome, while Polymarket distinguishes between pre-match walkovers (50-50), mid-match forfeits (advancing player wins), and full match completion (NO if any forfeit occurs). Additionally, Polymarket has a separate match completion binary with stricter forfeit exclusions.Hero tip: Monitor the match status closely. If the match is canceled entirely or delayed beyond 7 days without play, all platforms resolve to 50-50 or NO. If a walkover occurs before play begins, expect Kalshi and Limitless to resolve YES to the advancing player, but Polymarket's match winner market to resolve 50-50. If the match begins but a player retires or is defaulted, Kalshi and Limitless resolve YES to the advancing player, while Polymarket's match winner market also resolves YES, but the completion market resolves NO.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if either player wins after a ball has been played. Does not explicitly address walkovers, retirements, or non-completion. Minimal edge case guidance provided.
  • Limitless: Resolves to the official winner regardless of mechanism. Explicitly includes walkovers, retirements, withdrawals, defaults, and disqualifications as valid winner declarations. Quote: 'a player officially declared the winner of the match will be considered to have defeated the opponent, including in cases of walkover, retirement, withdrawal, default, or disqualification.'
  • Polymarket (Match Winner): Resolves 50-50 on pre-match walkover (withdrawal before start). Resolves to advancing player if match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification. Resolves 50-50 if canceled, ends in tie, or delayed beyond 7 days without winner. Quote: 'If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.'
  • Polymarket (Match Completion): Resolves YES only if all games and sets required to determine a winner are played to completion through normal play. Resolves NO if match is not completed for any reason, including any forfeit (walkover, retirement, default). Quote: 'If a forfeit of any kind occurs, including but not limited to a walkover or retirement, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Rinderknech and Martin Damm in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Rinderknech' if Arthur Rinderknech advances against Martin Damm. This market will resolve to 'Martin Damm' if Martin Damm advances against Arthur Rinderknech. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

If Arthur Rinderknech wins the Rinderknech vs Damm Jr professional tennis match in the 2026 Wimbledon Men Singles Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes. If Martin Damm Jr wins the Rinderknech vs Damm Jr professional tennis match in the 2026 Wimbledon Men Singles Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Arthur Rinderknech" if Arthur Rinderknech defeats Martin Damm in their Wimbledon match originally scheduled for July 1, 2026, 09:03 UTC. It will resolve to "Martin Damm" if Martin Damm defeats Arthur Rinderknech. For the purposes of this market, a player officially declared the winner of the match will be considered to have defeated the opponent, including in cases of walkover, retirement, withdrawal, default, or disqualification.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like these operate on peer-to-peer pricing rather than sportsbook margins, often reflecting sharper consensus when liquidity is deep. Sportsbooks build in vig and manage liability across many bets, while prediction markets aggregate trader conviction directly. For this match, comparing the implied probabilities here to major sportsbooks can reveal value: if books price Rinderknech higher or lower than the prediction market consensus, that gap may signal mispricing. Prediction markets tend to be faster at incorporating new information, though sportsbooks sometimes lead on major events with larger player bases.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, causing temporary price spreads. Kalshi's regulatory framework and order-matching engine may process information differently than Limitless's mechanism. Liquidity depth varies between platforms—lower volume on one side can push prices wider. Additionally, each platform's user base may weight player statistics, recent form, or tournament variables differently. These gaps typically narrow as informed traders arbitrage across venues, but they persist when volume is thin or when new information hits one platform before the other.

Recent player performance, injury reports, and head-to-head records are primary catalysts. Rinderknech's form in warm-up tournaments or earlier rounds at this event will shift trader positioning. Court surface conditions, weather, and seeding adjustments can also influence perceived edge. News of opponent Martin Damm's fitness or recent match outcomes will ripple through pricing. Betting syndicate activity and sharp money flowing into one side may signal new information. Tournament upsets or unexpected player withdrawals elsewhere in the draw could indirectly affect perceived difficulty of this matchup.